TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061856
Played Sep 2Finished
Yevhen Bielokon
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114119711111––
Ivan Elfemov
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:42 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Elfemov to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYevhen Bielokon above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-1
Point 65 set 4, 11-1 — our read held Ivan Elfemov at 63.7%
65 points played in total.
H2H Yevhen Bielokon 8–12 Ivan Elfemov Yevhen Bielokon has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:42What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Elfemov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-12 in 20
Elfemov
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bielokon 1275 vs Elfemov 1327
Elfemov
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bielokon 40% vs Elfemov 20%
Bielokon
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bielokon 30% vs Elfemov 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bielokon -3 · Elfemov -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Elfemov) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBielokon 2.50 / Elfemov 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Elfemov)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13061856
Bielokon2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 47 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back18% 13 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Elfemov1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 114 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it95% 62 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it83% 84 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBielokon4wins
AwayElfemov6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderElfemov leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBielokon60%3 of 5
AwayElfemov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bielokon5Elfemov5n = 10split evenly
S2Bielokon4Elfemov6n = 10Elfemov took 6 of 10
S3Bielokon5Elfemov5n = 10split evenly
S4Bielokon2Elfemov7n = 9Elfemov took 7 of 9
S5Bielokon2Elfemov1n = 3Bielokon took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBielokonElfemovB − EBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.440.4−1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBielokonElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 567 vs 267 / 44847.8%59.6%271 / 567 vs 267 / 448Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ElfemovBielokon 2.50/Elfemov 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Elfemov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bielokon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 19:05Y. Bielokon—8911101I. Elfemov—11116123
WAug 21 · 19:05Y. Bielokon—81111133I. Elfemov—1199111
LAug 16 · 19:55Y. Bielokon—912981I. Elfemov—111011113
WAug 6 · 13:35Y. Bielokon—118116113I. Elfemov—91151172
WJul 29 · 13:35Y. Bielokon—1191110113I. Elfemov—51191282
LJul 28 · 17:55Y. Bielokon—7970I. Elfemov—1111113
LJul 22 · 19:05Y. Bielokon—117761I. Elfemov—91111113
LJul 16 · 17:55Y. Bielokon—91112892I. Elfemov—1161011113
WJul 15 · 13:35Y. Bielokon—11115113I. Elfemov—571161
LJul 12 · 17:05Y. Bielokon—119781I. Elfemov—71111113
Y. Bielokon10
LSep 3 · 18:35A. Azarov1.91117113113Y. Bielokon1.8021161142LSep 3 · 17:35Y. Bielokon1.801291191V. Sydorenko1.9114114113LSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113LSep 3 · 13:05Y. Bielokon2.5051090D. Boltenkov1.501112113WSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:25Y. Bielokon2.2581111462D. Boltenkov1.57115811113LSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.10119371V. Chumak1.6761111113LSep 2 · 13:55Y. Bielokon1.73912111172A. Azarov2.00111444113WAug 27 · 19:25A. Azarov2.1011119192Y. Bielokon1.67861111113
I. Elfemov10
LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113LSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100WSep 1 · 20:25V. Hainiuk1.6711711432I. Elfemov2.10711711113
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