TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067558
Played Sep 3Finished
Vitalii Sydorenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118511117119––
Ivan Elfemov
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:10 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeIvan Elfemov to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Sydorenko above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Elfemov at 62.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Sydorenko 7–12 Ivan Elfemov Vitalii Sydorenko has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:10What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Elfemov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Elfemov
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sydorenko 1270 vs Elfemov 1335
Elfemov
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sydorenko 20% vs Elfemov 40%
Elfemov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sydorenko 40% vs Elfemov 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sydorenko -4 · Elfemov +2
Sydorenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Elfemov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSydorenko 2.50 / Elfemov 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Elfemov)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067558
Sydorenko2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 84 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back22% 30 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 87
Elfemov1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 115 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it94% 62 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it82% 84 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSydorenko2wins
AwayElfemov8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderElfemov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSydorenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayElfemov85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sydorenko3Elfemov7n = 10Elfemov took 7 of 10
S2Sydorenko4Elfemov6n = 10Elfemov took 6 of 10
S3Sydorenko2Elfemov8n = 10Elfemov took 8 of 10
S4Sydorenko2Elfemov5n = 7Elfemov took 5 of 7
S5Sydorenko2Elfemov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSydorenkoElfemovS − EBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.642.7−7.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSydorenkoElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime269 / 597 vs 269 / 45145.1%59.7%269 / 597 vs 269 / 451Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ElfemovSydorenko 2.50/Elfemov 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Elfemov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sydorenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 14:55V. Sydorenko—1111911123I. Elfemov—761113102
LAug 26 · 18:05V. Sydorenko—5135101I. Elfemov—111111123
LAug 21 · 12:35V. Sydorenko—1051181I. Elfemov—12118113
LAug 18 · 18:35V. Sydorenko—910111172I. Elfemov—111278113
LAug 11 · 13:05V. Sydorenko—11510101I. Elfemov—71112123
LJul 29 · 14:35V. Sydorenko—6260I. Elfemov—1111113
WJul 21 · 16:05V. Sydorenko—612611123I. Elfemov—1110116102
LJul 16 · 19:25V. Sydorenko—9750I. Elfemov—1111113
LJul 12 · 14:05V. Sydorenko—1112101122I. Elfemov—8101213113
LJul 9 · 12:35V. Sydorenko—41090I. Elfemov—1112113
V. Sydorenko10
LSep 3 · 19:35V. Sydorenko2.63713481D. Boltenkov1.44111111113WSep 3 · 17:35Y. Bielokon1.801291191V. Sydorenko1.9114114113WSep 3 · 15:35A. Azarov1.8051211842V. Sydorenko1.911110711113LSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113LSep 1 · 17:55V. Sydorenko2.63671161A. Lifanov1.4411119113LSep 1 · 16:25V. Sydorenko2.501141381V. Hainiuk1.5041115113WSep 1 · 14:55V. Sydorenko2.631111911123I. Elfemov1.44761113102LSep 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko3.4097130V. Sharpai1.301111153WAug 27 · 19:55F. Chashchin1.57941181V. Sydorenko2.2511117113
I. Elfemov10
LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113LSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100LSep 1 · 14:55V. Sydorenko2.631111911123I. Elfemov1.44761113102
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