TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061926
Played Sep 2Finished
Ruslan Serhyenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5119111412116119
Ivan Elfemov
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:13 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Elfemov to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRuslan Serhyenko above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 99 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Elfemov at 65.7%
99 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Serhyenko 8–11 Ivan Elfemov Ruslan Serhyenko has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Elfemov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Elfemov
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serhyenko 1230 vs Elfemov 1341
Elfemov
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serhyenko 40% vs Elfemov 20%
Serhyenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serhyenko 30% vs Elfemov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Serhyenko -2 · Elfemov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Elfemov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerhyenko 2.63 / Elfemov 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Elfemov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13061926
Serhyenko2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 66 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 65
Elfemov1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 114 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it95% 62 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it83% 84 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSerhyenko4wins
AwayElfemov6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderElfemov leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerhyenko33.3%2 of 6
AwayElfemov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serhyenko6Elfemov4n = 10Serhyenko took 6 of 10
S2Serhyenko6Elfemov4n = 10Serhyenko took 6 of 10
S3Serhyenko2Elfemov8n = 10Elfemov took 8 of 10
S4Serhyenko4Elfemov5n = 9Elfemov took 5 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSerhyenkoElfemovS − EBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.939.0−4.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerhyenkoElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime264 / 600 vs 267 / 44744%59.7%264 / 600 vs 267 / 447Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ElfemovSerhyenko 2.63/Elfemov 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Elfemov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Serhyenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 16:35R. Serhyenko—11168123I. Elfemov—91411101
LAug 16 · 16:55R. Serhyenko—3111191I. Elfemov—11713113
LAug 13 · 19:05R. Serhyenko—112751I. Elfemov—51111113
LAug 6 · 17:35R. Serhyenko—112971I. Elfemov—51111113
WJul 30 · 18:05R. Serhyenko—91111113I. Elfemov—119951
LJul 22 · 18:05R. Serhyenko—121210752I. Elfemov—10101211113
LJul 16 · 13:25R. Serhyenko—7570I. Elfemov—1111113
WJul 15 · 15:05R. Serhyenko—11115113I. Elfemov—391151
LJul 12 · 12:35R. Serhyenko—124741I. Elfemov—101111113
WJul 8 · 12:35R. Serhyenko—71111133I. Elfemov—1186111
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183LAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101LAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970LAug 27 · 20:25R. Serhyenko2.2012531192D. Boltenkov1.611011114113
I. Elfemov10
LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113LSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100WSep 1 · 20:25V. Hainiuk1.6711711432I. Elfemov2.10711711113
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