TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049535
Played Aug 31Finished
Viktor Sharpai
Home
1.22
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119117––––
Ruslan Serhyenko
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 80.9% is still 80.9%
Graded at full timeViktor Sharpai to win
80.9%
80.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViktor Sharpai above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 58 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Viktor Sharpai at 80.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Sharpai 21–3 Ruslan Serhyenko Ruslan Serhyenko has won 3 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Sharpai
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-3 in 24
Sharpai
Correct
gap of 18 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sharpai 1324 vs Serhyenko 1232
Sharpai
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sharpai 20% vs Serhyenko 0%
Sharpai
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sharpai 10% vs Serhyenko 10%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sharpai -4 · Serhyenko -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Sharpai)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serhyenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSharpai 1.22 / Serhyenko 4.00
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Sharpai)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13049535
Sharpai1.22
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 43 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it72% 33 of 46
Serhyenko4.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 64 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSharpai8wins
AwaySerhyenko2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSharpai leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSharpai87.5%7 of 8
AwaySerhyenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sharpai8Serhyenko2n = 10Sharpai took 8 of 10
S2Sharpai9Serhyenko1n = 10Sharpai took 9 of 10
S3Sharpai5Serhyenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Sharpai4Serhyenko1n = 5Sharpai took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSharpaiSerhyenkoSharpai − SerhyenkoBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.129.2+7.9per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSharpaiSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime259 / 554 vs 261 / 59346.8%44%259 / 554 vs 261 / 593Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SharpaiSharpai 1.22/Serhyenko 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.9%
Sharpai · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sharpai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 13:05V. Sharpai—111110113R. Serhyenko—491291
WJul 22 · 13:05V. Sharpai—511111113R. Serhyenko—11811552
LJul 20 · 12:35V. Sharpai—1191081R. Serhyenko—71112113
WJul 15 · 13:05V. Sharpai—1111113R. Serhyenko—6880
LJul 14 · 16:55V. Sharpai—611311102R. Serhyenko—116114123
WJul 8 · 17:05V. Sharpai—1111113R. Serhyenko—6840
WJul 7 · 17:25V. Sharpai—121110113R. Serhyenko—1071231
WMar 18 · 15:05V. Sharpai—1111113R. Serhyenko—6870
WMar 17 · 14:25V. Sharpai—1111113R. Serhyenko—7480
WMar 15 · 16:05V. Sharpai—1311103R. Serhyenko—11550
V. Sharpai10
WSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113WSep 1 · 18:55I. Elfemov2.2012670V. Sharpai1.611411113LSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:25V. Hainiuk1.91971161V. Sharpai1.8011117113WSep 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko3.4097130V. Sharpai1.301111153WAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671LAug 31 · 17:05V. Sharpai1.50117481V. Chumak2.5091111113LAug 31 · 15:35V. Sharpai1.61311881V. Hainiuk2.2011911113LAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113LAug 24 · 18:35O. Korobov1.7351411113V. Sharpai2.001112861
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183LAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101LAug 27 · 20:25R. Serhyenko2.2012531192D. Boltenkov1.611011114113
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