TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049638
Played Aug 31Finished
Viktor Sharpai
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511119116117––
Vitalii Kaganovych
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingViktor Sharpai above · Vitalii Kaganovych below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Sharpai 10–5 Vitalii Kaganovych Vitalii Kaganovych has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:04What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kaganovych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Sharpai
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sharpai 1307 vs Kaganovych 1467
Kaganovych
Wrong
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sharpai 20% vs Kaganovych 40%
Kaganovych
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sharpai 20% vs Kaganovych 60%
Kaganovych
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sharpai -3 · Kaganovych +1
Sharpai
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaganovych form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSharpai 1.83 / Kaganovych 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kaganovych)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13049638
Sharpai1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Kaganovych1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSharpai5wins
AwayKaganovych5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSharpai66.7%4 of 6
AwayKaganovych75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sharpai6Kaganovych4n = 10Sharpai took 6 of 10
S2Sharpai6Kaganovych4n = 10Sharpai took 6 of 10
S3Sharpai5Kaganovych5n = 10split evenly
S4Sharpai0Kaganovych3n = 3Kaganovych took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSharpaiKaganovychS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.731.2+3.5per matchSweeps43+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSharpaiKaganovychBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 558 vs 339 / 54646.6%62.1%260 / 558 vs 339 / 546Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychSharpai 1.83/Kaganovych 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sharpai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 16:35V. Sharpai—11712111V. Kaganovych—71114133
LJul 31 · 17:25V. Sharpai—97100V. Kaganovych—1111123
LJul 15 · 14:05V. Sharpai—9590V. Kaganovych—1111113
WJul 14 · 17:55V. Sharpai—1111113V. Kaganovych—8230
WJul 13 · 15:25V. Sharpai—1112113V. Kaganovych—81080
WMar 3 · 16:25V. Sharpai—1111113V. Kaganovych—8850
LFeb 19 · 14:05V. Sharpai—81360V. Kaganovych—1115113
LFeb 17 · 15:55V. Sharpai—11145592V. Kaganovych—2121111113
WFeb 12 · 15:35V. Sharpai—1111113V. Kaganovych—8540
WFeb 4 · 19:35V. Sharpai—1111119113V. Kaganovych—13281152
V. Sharpai10
WSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113WSep 1 · 18:55I. Elfemov2.2012670V. Sharpai1.611411113LSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:25V. Hainiuk1.91971161V. Sharpai1.8011117113WSep 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko3.4097130V. Sharpai1.301111153LAug 31 · 17:05V. Sharpai1.50117481V. Chumak2.5091111113LAug 31 · 15:35V. Sharpai1.61311881V. Hainiuk2.2011911113LAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113WAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970LAug 24 · 18:35O. Korobov1.7351411113V. Sharpai2.001112861
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kaganovych1.501211133I. Elfemov2.50108110WAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781LAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 15:05V. Kaganovych1.8011911113V. Chumak1.91911931LAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113LAug 25 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.38811119133V. Kaganovych1.53115811112
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