TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055430
Played Sep 1Finished
Andrii Lifanov
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111171191113811
Viktor Sharpai
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViktor Sharpai to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Lifanov above · Viktor Sharpai below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Viktor Sharpai at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Lifanov 1–4 Viktor Sharpai Andrii Lifanov has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sharpai
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Sharpai
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lifanov 1459 vs Sharpai 1381
Lifanov
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lifanov 80% vs Sharpai 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lifanov 90% vs Sharpai 50%
Lifanov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lifanov +2 · Sharpai +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Sharpai) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sharpai form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLifanov 2.20 / Sharpai 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Sharpai)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13055430
Lifanov2.20
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 20 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back29% 9 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Sharpai1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 45 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it69% 34 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeLifanov1wins
AwaySharpai4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderSharpai leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLifanovn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwaySharpai80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lifanov0Sharpai5n = 5Sharpai took 5 of 5
S2Lifanov2Sharpai3n = 5Sharpai took 3 of 5
S3Lifanov3Sharpai2n = 5Lifanov took 3 of 5
S4Lifanov1Sharpai2n = 3Sharpai took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricLifanovSharpaiL − SBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match34.839.4−4.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLifanovSharpaiBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 369 vs 261 / 55955.8%46.7%206 / 369 vs 261 / 559Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SharpaiLifanov 2.20/Sharpai 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Sharpai · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sharpai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov—911111182V. Sharpai—117913113
WJul 31 · 15:55A. Lifanov—31113113V. Sharpai—1171181
LJul 29 · 18:35A. Lifanov—9411111V. Sharpai—11114133
LJul 20 · 16:35A. Lifanov—121070V. Sharpai—1412113
LJul 14 · 15:55A. Lifanov—6790V. Sharpai—1111113
A. Lifanov10
WSep 1 · 17:55V. Sydorenko2.63671161A. Lifanov1.4411119113WSep 1 · 16:55A. Lifanov1.401111410133I. Elfemov2.75871112112LSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.361711113V. Hainiuk3.0015670WAug 26 · 19:35A. Lifanov1.50713511113V. Sydorenko2.50111111592WAug 26 · 17:35A. Azarov2.509111191A. Lifanov1.5011713113WAug 26 · 15:35D. Boltenkov1.809640A. Lifanov1.911111113WAug 26 · 14:35A. Lifanov1.501411113I. Elfemov2.5012870WAug 26 · 13:35Y. Bielokon2.381112961A. Lifanov1.5361411113WAug 25 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.38811119133V. Kaganovych1.53115811112
V. Sharpai10
WSep 1 · 18:55I. Elfemov2.2012670V. Sharpai1.611411113LSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:25V. Hainiuk1.91971161V. Sharpai1.8011117113WSep 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko3.4097130V. Sharpai1.301111153WAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671LAug 31 · 17:05V. Sharpai1.50117481V. Chumak2.5091111113LAug 31 · 15:35V. Sharpai1.61311881V. Hainiuk2.2011911113LAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113WAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970LAug 24 · 18:35O. Korobov1.7351411113V. Sharpai2.001112861
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