TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015074
Played Aug 26Finished
Andrii Lifanov
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412118117––––
Ivan Elfemov
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lifanov to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Lifanov above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 63 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Andrii Lifanov at 65.5%
63 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Lifanov 7–4 Ivan Elfemov Ivan Elfemov has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Lifanov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Lifanov
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lifanov 1417 vs Elfemov 1380
Lifanov
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lifanov 60% vs Elfemov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lifanov 70% vs Elfemov 40%
Lifanov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lifanov +2 · Elfemov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Lifanov) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLifanov 1.50 / Elfemov 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lifanov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13015074
Lifanov1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 127 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it83% 100 of 121
Elfemov2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 37 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back26% 15 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLifanov6wins
AwayElfemov4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLifanov leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLifanov85.7%6 of 7
AwayElfemov100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lifanov7Elfemov3n = 10Lifanov took 7 of 10
S2Lifanov5Elfemov5n = 10split evenly
S3Lifanov6Elfemov4n = 10Lifanov took 6 of 10
S4Lifanov3Elfemov0n = 3Lifanov took 3 of 3
S5Lifanov1Elfemov2n = 3Elfemov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLifanovElfemovL − EBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.431.4+4.0per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLifanovElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 360 vs 263 / 43655.3%60.3%199 / 360 vs 263 / 436Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LifanovLifanov 1.50/Elfemov 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Lifanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lifanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 14:05A. Lifanov—14571182I. Elfemov—1211117113
WAug 16 · 14:25A. Lifanov—1111113I. Elfemov—8930
WAug 6 · 15:35A. Lifanov—116911113I. Elfemov—81111482
LJul 30 · 14:05A. Lifanov—98111162I. Elfemov—111187113
WJul 29 · 17:35A. Lifanov—1111113I. Elfemov—8460
LJun 25 · 19:55A. Lifanov—6390I. Elfemov—1111113
WJun 23 · 18:35A. Lifanov—1111163I. Elfemov—67140
WJun 19 · 17:05A. Lifanov—1111123I. Elfemov—84100
WJun 15 · 18:55A. Lifanov—1111113I. Elfemov—6550
LJun 9 · 15:05A. Lifanov—96120I. Elfemov—1111143
A. Lifanov10
LSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113WSep 1 · 17:55V. Sydorenko2.63671161A. Lifanov1.4411119113WSep 1 · 16:55A. Lifanov1.401111410133I. Elfemov2.75871112112LSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.361711113V. Hainiuk3.0015670WAug 26 · 19:35A. Lifanov1.50713511113V. Sydorenko2.50111111592WAug 26 · 17:35A. Azarov2.509111191A. Lifanov1.5011713113WAug 26 · 15:35D. Boltenkov1.809640A. Lifanov1.911111113WAug 26 · 13:35Y. Bielokon2.381112961A. Lifanov1.5361411113WAug 25 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.38811119133V. Kaganovych1.53115811112
I. Elfemov10
LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Lifanov1.401111410133I. Elfemov2.75871112112
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