TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055516
Played Sep 1Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101181311––––
Ivan Elfemov
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 65 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 64.9%
65 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 8–3 Ivan Elfemov Ivan Elfemov has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:08What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kaganovych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Kaganovych
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1450 vs Elfemov 1398
Kaganovych
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 40% vs Elfemov 80%
Elfemov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 50% vs Elfemov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych -1 · Elfemov +3
Elfemov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.50 / Elfemov 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Kaganovych)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13055516
Kaganovych1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 125 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it96% 67 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it82% 89 of 109
Elfemov2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 37 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back25% 15 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych8wins
AwayElfemov2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych100%6 of 6
AwayElfemov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych6Elfemov4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S2Kaganovych6Elfemov4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S3Kaganovych5Elfemov5n = 10split evenly
S4Kaganovych7Elfemov2n = 9Kaganovych took 7 of 9
S5Kaganovych3Elfemov1n = 4Kaganovych took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychElfemovK − EBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.238.2+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 547 vs 266 / 44062%60.5%339 / 547 vs 266 / 440Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.50/Elfemov 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kaganovych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 13:05V. Kaganovych—511911113I. Elfemov—11611642
WAug 18 · 13:05V. Kaganovych—12811143I. Elfemov—10119121
LAug 11 · 14:05V. Kaganovych—981191I. Elfemov—11113113
WJul 28 · 14:55V. Kaganovych—1110711123I. Elfemov—512119102
WJul 15 · 17:05V. Kaganovych—121111113I. Elfemov—1081361
LJul 13 · 19:55V. Kaganovych—81311562I. Elfemov—1111711113
WJun 23 · 12:35V. Kaganovych—11117123I. Elfemov—6711101
WJun 15 · 19:55V. Kaganovych—1113113I. Elfemov—91180
WJun 8 · 16:35V. Kaganovych—671111113I. Elfemov—11114632
WJun 2 · 19:05V. Kaganovych—11118123I. Elfemov—8511101
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101LAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671WAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781LAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 15:05V. Kaganovych1.8011911113V. Chumak1.91911931LAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113LAug 25 · 18:35A. Lifanov2.38811119133V. Kaganovych1.53115811112
I. Elfemov10
LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113LSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100
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