TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061270
Played Sep 2Finished
Yevhen Bielokon
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116911311711––
Valentyn Chumak
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingYevhen Bielokon above · Valentyn Chumak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Valentyn Chumak at 58.6%
69 points played in total.
H2H Yevhen Bielokon 32–31 Valentyn Chumak Valentyn Chumak has won 31 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:25What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chumak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-31 in 63
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bielokon 1288 vs Chumak 1436
Chumak
Correct
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bielokon 60% vs Chumak 40%
Bielokon
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bielokon 40% vs Chumak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bielokon -1 · Chumak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Chumak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chumak form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBielokon 2.10 / Chumak 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Chumak)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13061270
Bielokon2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog38% won 47 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back18% 13 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Chumak1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 52 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it61% 28 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBielokon3wins
AwayChumak7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChumak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBielokon25%1 of 4
AwayChumak66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bielokon4Chumak6n = 10Chumak took 6 of 10
S2Bielokon4Chumak6n = 10Chumak took 6 of 10
S3Bielokon2Chumak8n = 10Chumak took 8 of 10
S4Bielokon3Chumak6n = 9Chumak took 6 of 9
S5Bielokon3Chumak1n = 4Bielokon took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBielokonChumakB − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.742.8−6.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBielokonChumakBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 567 vs 274 / 55148%49.7%272 / 567 vs 274 / 551Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakBielokon 2.10/Chumak 1.67
Hit
What we said
58.6%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chumak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 6 · 13:35Y. Bielokon—81070V. Chumak—1112113
WJun 22 · 13:35Y. Bielokon—661311113V. Chumak—111111772
LJun 18 · 17:05Y. Bielokon—116791V. Chumak—71111113
WJun 16 · 13:35Y. Bielokon—117611113V. Chumak—81111692
LJun 10 · 13:35Y. Bielokon—1041141V. Chumak—12114113
WJun 8 · 13:35Y. Bielokon—1011612113V. Chumak—126111082
LJun 3 · 17:35Y. Bielokon—6135101V. Chumak—111111123
LJun 1 · 15:05Y. Bielokon—311831V. Chumak—11711113
LMay 25 · 13:35Y. Bielokon—126981V. Chumak—101111113
LMay 4 · 15:55Y. Bielokon—11119572V. Chumak—881111113
Y. Bielokon10
LSep 3 · 18:35A. Azarov1.91117113113Y. Bielokon1.8021161142LSep 3 · 17:35Y. Bielokon1.801291191V. Sydorenko1.9114114113LSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113LSep 3 · 13:05Y. Bielokon2.5051090D. Boltenkov1.501112113WSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113WSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 17:25Y. Bielokon2.2581111462D. Boltenkov1.57115811113LSep 2 · 13:55Y. Bielokon1.73912111172A. Azarov2.00111444113WAug 27 · 19:25A. Azarov2.1011119192Y. Bielokon1.67861111113
V. Chumak10
WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Azarov2.009290WSep 2 · 14:25V. Chumak1.611111123I. Elfemov2.2036100LAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183
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