TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022629
Played Aug 27Finished
Fedir Chashchin
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611911116114113
Ruslan Serhyenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFedir Chashchin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFedir Chashchin above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 83 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Fedir Chashchin at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Fedir Chashchin 8–17 Ruslan Serhyenko Fedir Chashchin has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:55What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Serhyenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-17 in 25
Serhyenko
Wrong
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chashchin 1391 vs Serhyenko 1282
Chashchin
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chashchin 40% vs Serhyenko 20%
Chashchin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chashchin 30% vs Serhyenko 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chashchin -1 · Serhyenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chashchin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serhyenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChashchin 1.83 / Serhyenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chashchin)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13022629
Chashchin1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Serhyenko1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChashchin5wins
AwaySerhyenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChashchin100%5 of 5
AwaySerhyenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chashchin5Serhyenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Chashchin7Serhyenko3n = 10Chashchin took 7 of 10
S3Chashchin5Serhyenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Chashchin1Serhyenko5n = 6Serhyenko took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChashchinSerhyenkoC − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.034.5−0.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChashchinSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 176 vs 262 / 59350%44.2%88 / 176 vs 262 / 593Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChashchinChashchin 1.83/Serhyenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chashchin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chashchin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 16:35F. Chashchin—5119101R. Serhyenko—11811123
WJul 30 · 16:35F. Chashchin—1111113R. Serhyenko—5930
LJul 22 · 14:05F. Chashchin—7111181R. Serhyenko—11139113
WJul 8 · 14:05F. Chashchin—111185113R. Serhyenko—75111172
WMay 26 · 16:35F. Chashchin—1311113R. Serhyenko—11970
WMay 22 · 07:55F. Chashchin—12118113R. Serhyenko—1081161
LMay 19 · 12:35F. Chashchin—551121R. Serhyenko—11116113
WMay 13 · 12:35F. Chashchin—1211113R. Serhyenko—10570
LMay 7 · 13:55F. Chashchin—412961R. Serhyenko—111011113
LMay 5 · 17:05F. Chashchin—11670R. Serhyenko—1311113
F. Chashchin10
LAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741WAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:05V. Chumak2.251110271F. Chashchin1.5791211113WAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113WAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113LAug 27 · 19:55F. Chashchin1.57941181V. Sydorenko2.2511117113WAug 27 · 17:55A. Azarov1.917630F. Chashchin1.801111113WAug 27 · 16:55F. Chashchin2.38131112113D. Boltenkov1.531591021LAug 27 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.75914119113F. Chashchin1.40111241172LAug 11 · 19:05F. Chashchin2.507480D. Boltnekov1.501111113
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183LAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101LAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.