TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049620
Played Aug 31Finished
Volodymyr Hainiuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116117114––
Fedir Chashchin
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:54 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Hainiuk to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Hainiuk above · Fedir Chashchin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 68 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Volodymyr Hainiuk at 54.1%
68 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Hainiuk 8–8 Fedir Chashchin Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:54What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hainiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hainiuk 1385 vs Chashchin 1433
Chashchin
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hainiuk 60% vs Chashchin 80%
Chashchin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hainiuk 60% vs Chashchin 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hainiuk -1 · Chashchin +4
Chashchin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chashchin) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chashchin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHainiuk 1.80 / Chashchin 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chashchin)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13049620
Hainiuk1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 105 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it94% 49 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it79% 74 of 94
Chashchin1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 14 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHainiuk3wins
AwayChashchin7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChashchin leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHainiuk75%3 of 4
AwayChashchin100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hainiuk4Chashchin6n = 10Chashchin took 6 of 10
S2Hainiuk5Chashchin5n = 10split evenly
S3Hainiuk7Chashchin3n = 10Hainiuk took 7 of 10
S4Hainiuk2Chashchin5n = 7Chashchin took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHainiukChashchinH − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.336.5−2.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHainiukChashchinBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 681 vs 95 / 18554%51.4%368 / 681 vs 95 / 185Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChashchinHainiuk 1.80/Chashchin 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chashchin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hainiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 13:35V. Hainiuk—1111113F. Chashchin—4870
LJul 13 · 14:55V. Hainiuk—661151F. Chashchin—11119113
LJul 9 · 17:35V. Hainiuk—91121182F. Chashchin—1111106113
LJun 15 · 16:25V. Hainiuk—11512101F. Chashchin—71114123
WJun 8 · 14:05V. Hainiuk—1111113F. Chashchin—8760
LMay 26 · 17:35V. Hainiuk—961161F. Chashchin—11119113
LMay 22 · 08:55V. Hainiuk—1011651F. Chashchin—12911113
LMay 19 · 15:35V. Hainiuk—761191F. Chashchin—11117113
LMay 5 · 13:35V. Hainiuk—71161162F. Chashchin—116114113
WApr 23 · 17:35V. Hainiuk—1111103F. Chashchin—8680
V. Hainiuk10
LSep 1 · 20:25V. Hainiuk1.6711711432I. Elfemov2.10711711113LSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 16:25V. Sydorenko2.501141381V. Hainiuk1.5041115113LSep 1 · 15:25V. Hainiuk1.91971161V. Sharpai1.8011117113LSep 1 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.361711113V. Hainiuk3.0015670LAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781WAug 31 · 15:35V. Sharpai1.61311881V. Hainiuk2.2011911113LAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101WAug 31 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7371211772V. Hainiuk2.001110511113WAug 25 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.80241111113I. Elfemov1.9111116932
F. Chashchin10
WAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:05V. Chumak2.251110271F. Chashchin1.5791211113WAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113WAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113LAug 27 · 19:55F. Chashchin1.57941181V. Sydorenko2.2511117113WAug 27 · 17:55A. Azarov1.917630F. Chashchin1.801111113WAug 27 · 16:55F. Chashchin2.38131112113D. Boltenkov1.531591021LAug 27 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.75914119113F. Chashchin1.40111241172WAug 27 · 14:25F. Chashchin1.83691111113R. Serhyenko1.8311116432LAug 11 · 19:05F. Chashchin2.507480D. Boltnekov1.501111113
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