TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13008574
Played Aug 25Finished
Volodymyr Hainiuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
211411116119113
Ivan Elfemov
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Elfemov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVolodymyr Hainiuk above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 79 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Ivan Elfemov at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Hainiuk 8–10 Ivan Elfemov Volodymyr Hainiuk has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:45What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hainiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Elfemov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hainiuk 1371 vs Elfemov 1370
Hainiuk
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hainiuk 60% vs Elfemov 40%
Hainiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hainiuk 50% vs Elfemov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hainiuk -2 · Elfemov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hainiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHainiuk 1.80 / Elfemov 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hainiuk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13008574
Hainiuk1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 108 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it94% 50 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it79% 77 of 98
Elfemov1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 36 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHainiuk7wins
AwayElfemov3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHainiuk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHainiuk71.4%5 of 7
AwayElfemov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hainiuk7Elfemov3n = 10Hainiuk took 7 of 10
S2Hainiuk7Elfemov3n = 10Hainiuk took 7 of 10
S3Hainiuk7Elfemov3n = 10Hainiuk took 7 of 10
S4Hainiuk3Elfemov3n = 6split evenly
S5Hainiuk2Elfemov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHainiukElfemovH − EBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.133.0+6.1per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHainiukElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 686 vs 262 / 43554.2%60.2%372 / 686 vs 262 / 435Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HainiukHainiuk 1.80/Elfemov 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hainiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hainiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 19:35V. Hainiuk—241111113I. Elfemov—11116932
LAug 18 · 17:35V. Hainiuk—10111121I. Elfemov—12613113
LAug 13 · 13:35V. Hainiuk—11119462I. Elfemov—731111113
WAug 11 · 19:35V. Hainiuk—1112113I. Elfemov—61060
WJul 28 · 16:25V. Hainiuk—1111113I. Elfemov—8880
WJul 21 · 19:35V. Hainiuk—1111113I. Elfemov—8740
WJul 16 · 16:25V. Hainiuk—11811113I. Elfemov—611551
LJul 13 · 16:55V. Hainiuk—116121092I. Elfemov—1111012113
WJul 12 · 15:35V. Hainiuk—11111111113I. Elfemov—13613992
WJul 9 · 15:35V. Hainiuk—1111113I. Elfemov—7290
V. Hainiuk10
LSep 1 · 20:25V. Hainiuk1.6711711432I. Elfemov2.10711711113LSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 16:25V. Sydorenko2.501141381V. Hainiuk1.5041115113LSep 1 · 15:25V. Hainiuk1.91971161V. Sharpai1.8011117113LSep 1 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.361711113V. Hainiuk3.0015670WAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741LAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781WAug 31 · 15:35V. Sharpai1.61311881V. Hainiuk2.2011911113LAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101WAug 31 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7371211772V. Hainiuk2.001110511113
I. Elfemov10
LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113WSep 1 · 20:25V. Hainiuk1.6711711432I. Elfemov2.10711711113
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