TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089247
Played Sep 7Finished
Fedir Chashchin
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181151012311119
Valentyn Chumak
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeFedir Chashchin to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFedir Chashchin above · Valentyn Chumak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Fedir Chashchin at 59.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Fedir Chashchin 17–7 Valentyn Chumak Valentyn Chumak has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:42What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chashchin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-7 in 24
Chashchin
Correct
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chashchin 1411 vs Chumak 1474
Chumak
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chashchin 60% vs Chumak 80%
Chumak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chashchin 60% vs Chumak 80%
Chumak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chashchin -2 · Chumak +3
Chumak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Chashchin) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chumak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChashchin 1.61 / Chumak 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Chashchin)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13089247
Chashchin1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 33 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it76% 25 of 33
Chumak2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 67 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChashchin7wins
AwayChumak3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChashchin leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChashchin75%6 of 8
AwayChumakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chashchin8Chumak2n = 10Chashchin took 8 of 10
S2Chashchin5Chumak5n = 10split evenly
S3Chashchin6Chumak4n = 10Chashchin took 6 of 10
S4Chashchin5Chumak4n = 9Chashchin took 5 of 9
S5Chashchin3Chumak3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChashchinChumakChashchin − ChumakBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.937.7+5.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChashchinChumakBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 187 vs 282 / 56150.8%50.3%95 / 187 vs 282 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChashchinChashchin 1.61/Chumak 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Chashchin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chashchin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 16:05F. Chashchin—91211113V. Chumak—1110271
WJul 30 · 15:05F. Chashchin—117114123V. Chumak—811611102
LJul 9 · 15:05F. Chashchin—11811672V. Chumak—411511113
WJun 15 · 19:25F. Chashchin—118911113V. Chumak—51111972
WJun 8 · 15:35F. Chashchin—1111710113V. Chumak—79111262
LJun 3 · 13:35F. Chashchin—117113102V. Chumak—911411123
WMay 7 · 15:55F. Chashchin—1111113V. Chumak—9840
LApr 23 · 15:05F. Chashchin—71181162V. Chumak—113118113
WMar 11 · 16:55F. Chashchin—11115113V. Chumak—591171
WMar 3 · 18:05F. Chashchin—11911113V. Chumak—411571
F. Chashchin10
LSep 7 · 16:35F. Chashchin2.75115971V. Sharpai1.4031111113LSep 7 · 13:05F. Chashchin2.2571112462V. Kaganovych1.571191011113LAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741WAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:05V. Chumak2.251110271F. Chashchin1.5791211113WAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113WAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113LAug 27 · 19:55F. Chashchin1.57941181V. Sydorenko2.2511117113WAug 27 · 17:55A. Azarov1.917630F. Chashchin1.801111113WAug 27 · 16:55F. Chashchin2.38131112113D. Boltenkov1.531591021
V. Chumak10
WSep 7 · 16:05V. Chumak1.911112113V. Kaganovych1.8071070WSep 7 · 13:35V. Chumak1.731111113V. Hainiuk2.006670WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113LAug 31 · 16:05V. Chumak2.251110271F. Chashchin1.5791211113
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