TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088679
Played Sep 7Finished
Fedir Chashchin
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111191210411611
Vitalii Kaganovych
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:13 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFedir Chashchin above · Vitalii Kaganovych below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 60.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Fedir Chashchin 10–11 Vitalii Kaganovych Fedir Chashchin has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kaganovych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-11 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chashchin 1411 vs Kaganovych 1505
Kaganovych
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chashchin 80% vs Kaganovych 100%
Kaganovych
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chashchin 70% vs Kaganovych 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chashchin -1 · Kaganovych +5
Kaganovych
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaganovych form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChashchin 2.25 / Kaganovych 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kaganovych)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13088679
Chashchin2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 16 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Kaganovych1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 126 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it96% 65 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it82% 89 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChashchin4wins
AwayKaganovych6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChashchin60%3 of 5
AwayKaganovych80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chashchin5Kaganovych5n = 10split evenly
S2Chashchin4Kaganovych6n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S3Chashchin9Kaganovych1n = 10Chashchin took 9 of 10
S4Chashchin2Kaganovych7n = 9Kaganovych took 7 of 9
S5Chashchin1Kaganovych3n = 4Kaganovych took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChashchinKaganovychC − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.242.7−4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChashchinKaganovychBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 187 vs 339 / 54450.8%62.3%95 / 187 vs 339 / 544Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychChashchin 2.25/Kaganovych 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaganovych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 13:05F. Chashchin—71112462V. Kaganovych—1191011113
WAug 31 · 13:05F. Chashchin—117115113V. Kaganovych—71161182
WAug 11 · 17:05F. Chashchin—11712113V. Kaganovych—9111091
WJul 13 · 13:25F. Chashchin—81111113V. Kaganovych—119881
LJun 15 · 17:55F. Chashchin—741191V. Kaganovych—11118113
LJun 8 · 12:35F. Chashchin—511141222V. Kaganovych—1181214113
LMay 13 · 17:05F. Chashchin—451171V. Kaganovych—11119113
LMar 3 · 15:05F. Chashchin—118117102V. Kaganovych—811911123
WFeb 23 · 17:35F. Chashchin—1111123V. Kaganovych—89100
LJan 28 · 15:35F. Chashchin—116871V. Kaganovych—71111113
F. Chashchin10
LAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741WAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:05V. Chumak2.251110271F. Chashchin1.5791211113WAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113WAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113LAug 27 · 19:55F. Chashchin1.57941181V. Sydorenko2.2511117113WAug 27 · 17:55A. Azarov1.917630F. Chashchin1.801111113WAug 27 · 16:55F. Chashchin2.38131112113D. Boltenkov1.531591021LAug 27 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.75914119113F. Chashchin1.40111241172WAug 27 · 14:25F. Chashchin1.83691111113R. Serhyenko1.8311116432
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kaganovych1.501211133I. Elfemov2.50108110LAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671WAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781LAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 15:05V. Kaganovych1.8011911113V. Chumak1.91911931LAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113
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