TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088654
Played Sep 7Finished
Valentyn Chumak
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171210117––––
Vitalii Kaganovych
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Vitalii Kaganovych below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 58 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 44–53 Vitalii Kaganovych Valentyn Chumak has won 44 of their 97 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kaganovych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-53 in 97
Kaganovych
Wrong
gap of 9 in 97, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1461 vs Kaganovych 1495
Kaganovych
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 60% vs Kaganovych 80%
Kaganovych
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 70% vs Kaganovych 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak -1 · Kaganovych -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaganovych form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 1.91 / Kaganovych 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kaganovych)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13088654
Chumak1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 67 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Kaganovych1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 126 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it96% 65 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it82% 89 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChumak5wins
AwayKaganovych5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChumak100%4 of 4
AwayKaganovych83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chumak4Kaganovych6n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S2Chumak6Kaganovych4n = 10Chumak took 6 of 10
S3Chumak6Kaganovych4n = 10Chumak took 6 of 10
S4Chumak4Kaganovych4n = 8split evenly
S5Chumak2Kaganovych3n = 5Kaganovych took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChumakKaganovychC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.039.2+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakKaganovychBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 562 vs 339 / 54550.2%62.2%282 / 562 vs 339 / 545Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychChumak 1.91/Kaganovych 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chumak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 15:05V. Chumak—911931V. Kaganovych—11911113
LAug 25 · 15:05V. Chumak—11890V. Kaganovych—1311113
LAug 24 · 19:05V. Chumak—811111082V. Kaganovych—118812113
WAug 18 · 16:05V. Chumak—1111811113V. Kaganovych—51311732
WAug 17 · 17:05V. Chumak—101111113V. Kaganovych—127671
WAug 10 · 14:25V. Chumak—118118113V. Kaganovych—61181162
WAug 3 · 16:35V. Chumak—11113113V. Kaganovych—681191
LJul 27 · 15:55V. Chumak—64111382V. Kaganovych—1111611113
WJul 22 · 16:55V. Chumak—1111113V. Kaganovych—3480
LJul 20 · 18:25V. Chumak—411157102V. Kaganovych—1161311123
V. Chumak10
LSep 7 · 15:05F. Chashchin1.611111103113V. Chumak2.2085121192WSep 7 · 13:35V. Chumak1.731111113V. Hainiuk2.006670WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Azarov2.009290
V. Kaganovych10
LSep 7 · 14:05O. Korobov1.7313511113V. Kaganovych2.001111241WSep 7 · 13:05F. Chashchin2.2571112462V. Kaganovych1.571191011113WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kaganovych1.501211133I. Elfemov2.50108110LAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671WAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781LAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.