TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105706
Played Sep 10Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114116411911112
Andrii Lifanov
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:58 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lifanov to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Andrii Lifanov below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 80 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Andrii Lifanov at 68.5%
80 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 4–9 Andrii Lifanov Ivan Elfemov has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Lifanov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Lifanov
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1368 vs Lifanov 1459
Lifanov
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 80% vs Lifanov 60%
Elfemov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 70% vs Lifanov 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov -1 · Lifanov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Lifanov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 2.63 / Lifanov 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Lifanov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13105706
Elfemov2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 40 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Lifanov1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 126 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it96% 67 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it83% 99 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeElfemov3wins
AwayLifanov7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLifanov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeElfemovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLifanov87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Elfemov2Lifanov8n = 10Lifanov took 8 of 10
S2Elfemov4Lifanov6n = 10Lifanov took 6 of 10
S3Elfemov4Lifanov6n = 10Lifanov took 6 of 10
S4Elfemov1Lifanov3n = 4Lifanov took 3 of 4
S5Elfemov2Lifanov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricElfemovLifanovE − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.837.9−4.1per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovLifanovBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 460 vs 206 / 36959.8%55.8%275 / 460 vs 206 / 369Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LifanovElfemov 2.63/Lifanov 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Lifanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Elfemov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 16:55I. Elfemov—871112112A. Lifanov—1111410133
LAug 26 · 14:35I. Elfemov—12870A. Lifanov—1411113
WAug 25 · 14:05I. Elfemov—1211117113A. Lifanov—14571182
LAug 16 · 14:25I. Elfemov—8930A. Lifanov—1111113
LAug 6 · 15:35I. Elfemov—81111482A. Lifanov—116911113
WJul 30 · 14:05I. Elfemov—111187113A. Lifanov—98111162
LJul 29 · 17:35I. Elfemov—8460A. Lifanov—1111113
WJun 25 · 19:55I. Elfemov—1111113A. Lifanov—6390
LJun 23 · 18:35I. Elfemov—67140A. Lifanov—1111163
LJun 19 · 17:05I. Elfemov—84100A. Lifanov—1111123
I. Elfemov10
LSep 8 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8061111143I. Elfemov1.911166121WSep 8 · 18:05I. Elfemov1.50117115113R. Serhyenko2.5081171182WSep 8 · 16:05Y. Bielokon2.506540I. Elfemov1.501111113WSep 8 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.40611851I. Elfemov2.7511811113WSep 8 · 13:05V. Sydorenko2.3812781192I. Elfemov1.531011116113LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113
A. Lifanov10
LSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113WSep 1 · 17:55V. Sydorenko2.63671161A. Lifanov1.4411119113WSep 1 · 16:55A. Lifanov1.401111410133I. Elfemov2.75871112112LSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 14:25A. Lifanov1.361711113V. Hainiuk3.0015670WAug 26 · 19:35A. Lifanov1.50713511113V. Sydorenko2.50111111592WAug 26 · 17:35A. Azarov2.509111191A. Lifanov1.5011713113WAug 26 · 15:35D. Boltenkov1.809640A. Lifanov1.911111113WAug 26 · 14:35A. Lifanov1.501411113I. Elfemov2.5012870WAug 26 · 13:35Y. Bielokon2.381112961A. Lifanov1.5361411113
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