TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094879
Played Sep 8Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611118811511––
Ivan Elfemov
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 70.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 9–3 Ivan Elfemov Ivan Elfemov has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kaganovych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Kaganovych
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1501 vs Elfemov 1349
Kaganovych
Wrong
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 60% vs Elfemov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 80% vs Elfemov 50%
Kaganovych
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych +3 · Elfemov +1
Kaganovych
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.40 / Elfemov 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Kaganovych)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094879
Kaganovych1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 126 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it82% 88 of 108
Elfemov2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 39 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych8wins
AwayElfemov2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych100%6 of 6
AwayElfemov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych6Elfemov4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S2Kaganovych6Elfemov4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S3Kaganovych6Elfemov4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S4Kaganovych6Elfemov2n = 8Kaganovych took 6 of 8
S5Kaganovych3Elfemov1n = 4Kaganovych took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychElfemovK − EBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.637.7+4.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime341 / 548 vs 272 / 45662.2%59.7%341 / 548 vs 272 / 456Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.40/Elfemov 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Elfemov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kaganovych—1211133I. Elfemov—108110
WAug 25 · 13:05V. Kaganovych—511911113I. Elfemov—11611642
WAug 18 · 13:05V. Kaganovych—12811143I. Elfemov—10119121
LAug 11 · 14:05V. Kaganovych—981191I. Elfemov—11113113
WJul 28 · 14:55V. Kaganovych—1110711123I. Elfemov—512119102
WJul 15 · 17:05V. Kaganovych—121111113I. Elfemov—1081361
LJul 13 · 19:55V. Kaganovych—81311562I. Elfemov—1111711113
WJun 23 · 12:35V. Kaganovych—11117123I. Elfemov—6711101
WJun 15 · 19:55V. Kaganovych—1113113I. Elfemov—91180
WJun 8 · 16:35V. Kaganovych—671111113I. Elfemov—11114632
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 8 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.401111133R. Serhyenko2.7584110WSep 7 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.50118391V. Kaganovych1.5061111113WSep 7 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.8311811113V. Sharpai1.83411781LSep 7 · 16:05V. Chumak1.911112113V. Kaganovych1.8071070LSep 7 · 14:05O. Korobov1.7313511113V. Kaganovych2.001111241WSep 7 · 13:05F. Chashchin2.2571112462V. Kaganovych1.571191011113WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101
I. Elfemov10
WSep 8 · 13:05V. Sydorenko2.3812781192I. Elfemov1.531011116113LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972LSep 2 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.5011117113I. Elfemov1.50491111LSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov1.6713611882D. Boltenkov2.101111611113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.