TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094542
Played Sep 8Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181141311––––
Ruslan Serhyenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:26 and never touched — 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 58 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 69.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 38–29 Ruslan Serhyenko Ruslan Serhyenko has won 29 of their 67 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kaganovych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-29 in 67
Kaganovych
Correct
gap of 9 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1495 vs Serhyenko 1229
Kaganovych
Correct
both rated, 266 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 60% vs Serhyenko 20%
Kaganovych
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 80% vs Serhyenko 40%
Kaganovych
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych +2 · Serhyenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serhyenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.40 / Serhyenko 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Kaganovych)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13094542
Kaganovych1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 126 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it82% 88 of 108
Serhyenko2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 66 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych5wins
AwaySerhyenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych50%3 of 6
AwaySerhyenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych6Serhyenko4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S2Kaganovych5Serhyenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kaganovych6Serhyenko4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S4Kaganovych3Serhyenko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychSerhyenkoK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.534.9+2.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime341 / 548 vs 265 / 60362.2%44%341 / 548 vs 265 / 603Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.40/Serhyenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.9%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kaganovych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych—118118122R. Serhyenko—911811143
LAug 25 · 16:35V. Kaganovych—116981R. Serhyenko—61111113
LAug 24 · 18:05V. Kaganovych—810110R. Serhyenko—1112133
WJul 27 · 17:25V. Kaganovych—81111113R. Serhyenko—117681
LJul 15 · 18:35V. Kaganovych—71290R. Serhyenko—1114113
LJul 14 · 14:55V. Kaganovych—13117962R. Serhyenko—1161111113
WJun 1 · 14:05V. Kaganovych—11611113R. Serhyenko—911691
WMay 27 · 14:35V. Kaganovych—61111113R. Serhyenko—114631
WMay 13 · 19:05V. Kaganovych—1114113R. Serhyenko—61270
WMay 11 · 18:35V. Kaganovych—1111113R. Serhyenko—6580
V. Kaganovych10
LSep 8 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.40611851I. Elfemov2.7511811113WSep 7 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.50118391V. Kaganovych1.5061111113WSep 7 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.8311811113V. Sharpai1.83411781LSep 7 · 16:05V. Chumak1.911112113V. Kaganovych1.8071070LSep 7 · 14:05O. Korobov1.7313511113V. Kaganovych2.001111241WSep 7 · 13:05F. Chashchin2.2571112462V. Kaganovych1.571191011113WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183LAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101LAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970
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