TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089405
Played Sep 7Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114811117118––
Viktor Sharpai
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Viktor Sharpai below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 6–11 Viktor Sharpai Vitalii Kaganovych has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:20What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sharpai
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Sharpai
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1479 vs Sharpai 1401
Kaganovych
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 60% vs Sharpai 80%
Sharpai
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 70% vs Sharpai 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych -2 · Sharpai +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sharpai form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.83 / Sharpai 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kaganovych)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13089405
Kaganovych1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Sharpai1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych6wins
AwaySharpai4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych75%3 of 4
AwaySharpai50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych4Sharpai6n = 10Sharpai took 6 of 10
S2Kaganovych5Sharpai5n = 10split evenly
S3Kaganovych6Sharpai4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S4Kaganovych3Sharpai1n = 4Kaganovych took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychSharpaiK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.632.60.0per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychSharpaiBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 546 vs 259 / 55262.1%46.9%339 / 546 vs 259 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.83/Sharpai 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kaganovych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych—41111113V. Sharpai—115561
LAug 31 · 18:35V. Kaganovych—119671V. Sharpai—51111113
WAug 24 · 16:35V. Kaganovych—71114133V. Sharpai—11712111
WJul 31 · 17:25V. Kaganovych—1111123V. Sharpai—97100
WJul 15 · 14:05V. Kaganovych—1111113V. Sharpai—9590
LJul 14 · 17:55V. Kaganovych—8230V. Sharpai—1111113
LJul 13 · 15:25V. Kaganovych—81080V. Sharpai—1112113
LMar 3 · 16:25V. Kaganovych—8850V. Sharpai—1111113
WFeb 19 · 14:05V. Kaganovych—1115113V. Sharpai—81360
WFeb 17 · 15:55V. Kaganovych—2121111113V. Sharpai—11145592
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 7 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.50118391V. Kaganovych1.5061111113LSep 7 · 16:05V. Chumak1.911112113V. Kaganovych1.8071070LSep 7 · 14:05O. Korobov1.7313511113V. Kaganovych2.001111241WSep 7 · 13:05F. Chashchin2.2571112462V. Kaganovych1.571191011113WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kaganovych1.501211133I. Elfemov2.50108110LAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671
V. Sharpai10
LSep 7 · 19:05V. Chumak2.20118911113V. Sharpai1.6161111872WSep 7 · 16:35F. Chashchin2.75115971V. Sharpai1.4031111113WSep 7 · 14:35V. Hainiuk2.20310100V. Sharpai1.611112123LSep 7 · 12:35O. Korobov1.5311511113V. Sharpai2.38611661WSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113WSep 1 · 18:55I. Elfemov2.2012670V. Sharpai1.611411113LSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:25V. Hainiuk1.91971161V. Sharpai1.8011117113WSep 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko3.4097130V. Sharpai1.301111153WAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671
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