TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089409
Played Sep 7Finished
Valentyn Chumak
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116811911118117
Viktor Sharpai
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViktor Sharpai to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Viktor Sharpai below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 93 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Viktor Sharpai at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 2–3 Viktor Sharpai Valentyn Chumak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:20What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sharpai
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1469 vs Sharpai 1392
Chumak
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 60% vs Sharpai 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 60% vs Sharpai 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak -1 · Sharpai -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sharpai)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chumak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 2.20 / Sharpai 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sharpai)-3.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13089409
Chumak2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 67 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Sharpai1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 49 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it70% 38 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeChumak2wins
AwaySharpai3wins
Sharpai leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChumakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySharpai75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chumak1Sharpai4n = 5Sharpai took 4 of 5
S2Chumak3Sharpai2n = 5Chumak took 3 of 5
S3Chumak2Sharpai3n = 5Sharpai took 3 of 5
S4Chumak2Sharpai2n = 4split evenly
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricChumakSharpaiC − SBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match36.435.8+0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakSharpaiBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 564 vs 259 / 55350.2%46.8%283 / 564 vs 259 / 553Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SharpaiChumak 2.20/Sharpai 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sharpai · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chumak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 31 · 17:05V. Chumak—91111113V. Sharpai—117481
WAug 24 · 15:05V. Chumak—111110113V. Sharpai—481261
LFeb 19 · 17:05V. Chumak—10101171V. Sharpai—12128113
LFeb 12 · 14:35V. Chumak—9870V. Sharpai—1111113
LFeb 4 · 18:05V. Chumak—912771V. Sharpai—111011113
V. Chumak10
LSep 7 · 17:05O. Korobov1.33117811133V. Chumak3.25711114112WSep 7 · 16:05V. Chumak1.911112113V. Kaganovych1.8071070LSep 7 · 15:05F. Chashchin1.611111103113V. Chumak2.2085121192WSep 7 · 13:35V. Chumak1.731111113V. Hainiuk2.006670WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113
V. Sharpai10
LSep 7 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.8311811113V. Sharpai1.83411781WSep 7 · 16:35F. Chashchin2.75115971V. Sharpai1.4031111113WSep 7 · 14:35V. Hainiuk2.20310100V. Sharpai1.611112123LSep 7 · 12:35O. Korobov1.5311511113V. Sharpai2.38611661WSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113WSep 1 · 18:55I. Elfemov2.2012670V. Sharpai1.611411113LSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:25V. Hainiuk1.91971161V. Sharpai1.8011117113WSep 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko3.4097130V. Sharpai1.301111153WAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671
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