TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094633
Played Sep 8Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118711117511118
Ruslan Serhyenko
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Elfemov to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Ivan Elfemov at 63.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 12–9 Ruslan Serhyenko Ruslan Serhyenko has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Elfemov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Elfemov
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1374 vs Serhyenko 1202
Elfemov
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 80% vs Serhyenko 0%
Elfemov
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 70% vs Serhyenko 20%
Elfemov
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov +3 · Serhyenko -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Elfemov) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serhyenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 1.50 / Serhyenko 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Elfemov)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13094633
Elfemov1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 117 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it94% 64 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it82% 86 of 105
Serhyenko2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 66 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeElfemov6wins
AwaySerhyenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderElfemov leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeElfemov60%3 of 5
AwaySerhyenko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Elfemov5Serhyenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Elfemov5Serhyenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Elfemov8Serhyenko2n = 10Elfemov took 8 of 10
S4Elfemov4Serhyenko4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricElfemovSerhyenkoE − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.335.3+4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 458 vs 261 / 59659.8%43.8%274 / 458 vs 261 / 596Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ElfemovElfemov 1.50/Serhyenko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Elfemov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Elfemov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 16:25I. Elfemov—111112692R. Serhyenko—591411113
WAug 25 · 18:05I. Elfemov—1111113R. Serhyenko—8690
LAug 21 · 16:35I. Elfemov—91411101R. Serhyenko—11168123
WAug 16 · 16:55I. Elfemov—11713113R. Serhyenko—3111191
WAug 13 · 19:05I. Elfemov—51111113R. Serhyenko—112751
WAug 6 · 17:35I. Elfemov—51111113R. Serhyenko—112971
LJul 30 · 18:05I. Elfemov—119951R. Serhyenko—91111113
WJul 22 · 18:05I. Elfemov—10101211113R. Serhyenko—121210752
WJul 16 · 13:25I. Elfemov—1111113R. Serhyenko—7570
LJul 15 · 15:05I. Elfemov—391151R. Serhyenko—11115113
I. Elfemov10
LSep 8 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8021I. Elfemov1.9100WSep 8 · 16:05Y. Bielokon2.506540I. Elfemov1.501111113WSep 8 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.40611851I. Elfemov2.7511811113WSep 8 · 13:05V. Sydorenko2.3812781192I. Elfemov1.531011116113LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:35Y. Bielokon2.20971181I. Elfemov1.6111117103LSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791WSep 3 · 12:35A. Azarov2.1011680I. Elfemov1.671311113WSep 2 · 20:25I. Elfemov1.731241111113A. Azarov2.0014118972
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 8 · 19:05Y. Bielokon1.501111113R. Serhyenko2.507990LSep 8 · 16:35V. Sydorenko2.001611113R. Serhyenko1.7314690LSep 8 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.301111113R. Serhyenko3.403940LSep 8 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.401111133R. Serhyenko2.7584110LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.