TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094647
Played Sep 8Finished
Vitalii Sydorenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1614116119––––
Ruslan Serhyenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Serhyenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Sydorenko above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 67 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ruslan Serhyenko at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Sydorenko 53–60 Ruslan Serhyenko Vitalii Sydorenko has won 53 of their 113 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Serhyenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-60 in 113
Serhyenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 113, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sydorenko 1299 vs Serhyenko 1213
Sydorenko
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sydorenko 60% vs Serhyenko 20%
Sydorenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sydorenko 40% vs Serhyenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sydorenko +1 · Serhyenko -4
Serhyenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sydorenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serhyenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSydorenko 2.00 / Serhyenko 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sydorenko)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #13094647
Sydorenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 86 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back22% 30 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 85
Serhyenko1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 39 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it80% 32 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSydorenko5wins
AwaySerhyenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSydorenko80%4 of 5
AwaySerhyenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sydorenko5Serhyenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Sydorenko4Serhyenko6n = 10Serhyenko took 6 of 10
S3Sydorenko6Serhyenko4n = 10Sydorenko took 6 of 10
S4Sydorenko2Serhyenko3n = 5Serhyenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSydorenkoSerhyenkoSydorenko − SerhyenkoBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.534.5−1.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSydorenkoSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 587 vs 261 / 59545.1%43.9%265 / 587 vs 261 / 595Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SydorenkoSydorenko 2.00/Serhyenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sydorenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sydorenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 15:25V. Sydorenko—1113123R. Serhyenko—811100
WAug 21 · 18:35V. Sydorenko—1112113R. Serhyenko—81080
LAug 4 · 16:35V. Sydorenko—791171R. Serhyenko—11116113
WJul 16 · 17:25V. Sydorenko—1111113R. Serhyenko—9640
WJul 14 · 18:55V. Sydorenko—11711113R. Serhyenko—511991
LJul 12 · 18:05V. Sydorenko—11101181R. Serhyenko—13129113
WJul 8 · 18:35V. Sydorenko—414411113R. Serhyenko—111211692
LJul 7 · 13:25V. Sydorenko—1191091R. Serhyenko—41112113
LJul 1 · 18:35V. Sydorenko—8230R. Serhyenko—1111113
LJun 29 · 12:35V. Sydorenko—8590R. Serhyenko—1111113
V. Sydorenko10
LSep 8 · 17:35V. Sydorenko2.3846111282V. Hainiuk1.531111710113WSep 8 · 15:05V. Sydorenko1.8331512113Y. Bielokon1.8311131081LSep 8 · 13:05V. Sydorenko2.3812781192I. Elfemov1.531011116113LSep 3 · 19:35V. Sydorenko2.63713481D. Boltenkov1.44111111113WSep 3 · 17:35Y. Bielokon1.801291191V. Sydorenko1.9114114113WSep 3 · 15:35A. Azarov1.8051211842V. Sydorenko1.911110711113WSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791LSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113LSep 1 · 17:55V. Sydorenko2.63671161A. Lifanov1.4411119113
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 8 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.301111113R. Serhyenko3.403940LSep 8 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.401111133R. Serhyenko2.7584110LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183LAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143
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