TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131345
Played Sep 15Finished
Fedir Chashchin
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012711611––––
Ivan Elfemov
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:53 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeFedir Chashchin to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFedir Chashchin above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Fedir Chashchin at 60.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Fedir Chashchin 9–4 Ivan Elfemov Ivan Elfemov has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chashchin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Chashchin
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chashchin 1444 vs Elfemov 1385
Chashchin
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chashchin 60% vs Elfemov 40%
Chashchin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chashchin 70% vs Elfemov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chashchin +2 · Elfemov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Chashchin)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChashchin 1.61 / Elfemov 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Chashchin)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13131345
Chashchin1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 27 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it74% 20 of 27
Elfemov2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 39 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChashchin6wins
AwayElfemov4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChashchin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChashchin80%4 of 5
AwayElfemov60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chashchin5Elfemov5n = 10split evenly
S2Chashchin7Elfemov3n = 10Chashchin took 7 of 10
S3Chashchin5Elfemov5n = 10split evenly
S4Chashchin7Elfemov1n = 8Chashchin took 7 of 8
S5Chashchin1Elfemov3n = 4Elfemov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChashchinElfemovC − EBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.235.5+4.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChashchinElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 191 vs 284 / 47351.3%60%98 / 191 vs 284 / 473Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChashchinChashchin 1.61/Elfemov 2.20
Miss
What we said
60.1%
Chashchin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Elfemov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 16:05F. Chashchin331111113I. Elfemov239680
LAug 6 · 14:35F. Chashchin4173111192I. Elfemov44111174113
WJul 30 · 13:05F. Chashchin4411148113I. Elfemov302121151
LJul 22 · 12:35F. Chashchin4111491162I. Elfemov50911118113
WJul 13 · 17:55F. Chashchin46412811113I. Elfemov43111011742
WJul 9 · 18:35F. Chashchin4291111113I. Elfemov29115941
WJul 8 · 18:05F. Chashchin4011117113I. Elfemov28581141
WJun 15 · 13:25F. Chashchin331111113I. Elfemov227690
LJun 8 · 18:35F. Chashchin37911891I. Elfemov3911611113
LJun 3 · 19:05F. Chashchin4586111192I. Elfemov47111186113
F. Chashchin10
WSep 15 · 15:05F. Chashchin3.4081111113A. Yakovenko1.30119481WSep 7 · 18:35O. Korobov1.83117871F. Chashchin1.8371111113WSep 7 · 17:35F. Chashchin2.10661211113V. Hainiuk1.67111110692LSep 7 · 16:35F. Chashchin2.75115971V. Sharpai1.4031111113WSep 7 · 15:05F. Chashchin1.611111103113V. Chumak2.2085121192LSep 7 · 13:05F. Chashchin2.2571112462V. Kaganovych1.571191011113LAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741WAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:05V. Chumak2.251110271F. Chashchin1.5791211113WAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113
I. Elfemov10
LSep 15 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.5711511113I. Elfemov2.25911871LSep 14 · 18:35O. Korobov1.3091114113I. Elfemov3.401131241LSep 14 · 17:35I. Elfemov2.00611791V. Hainiuk1.7311711113WSep 14 · 16:35I. Elfemov1.5011511113V. Sydorenko2.50711691WSep 14 · 15:05I. Elfemov2.106111013113V. Sharpai1.67119121192LSep 14 · 13:05I. Elfemov2.2511871192V. Kaganovych1.57711116113LSep 11 · 18:35I. Elfemov1.409111161Y. Bielokon2.7511135113WSep 11 · 17:06I. Elfemov1.4481612113R. Serhyenko2.6311141091WSep 11 · 15:33I. Elfemov2.5011611133V. Kaganovych1.508117111WSep 10 · 19:25I. Elfemov2.50613611113V. Sharpai1.50111111892
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