TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126892
Played Sep 14Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117811711116911
Vitalii Kaganovych
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:57 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Vitalii Kaganovych below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 59.3%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 5–9 Vitalii Kaganovych Ivan Elfemov has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:57What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kaganovych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Kaganovych
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1394 vs Kaganovych 1451
Kaganovych
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 80% vs Kaganovych 60%
Elfemov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 80% vs Kaganovych 60%
Elfemov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov -1 · Kaganovych -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 2.25 / Kaganovych 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kaganovych)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13126892
Elfemov2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 38 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back26% 16 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Kaganovych1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 122 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it82% 86 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeElfemov4wins
AwayKaganovych6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeElfemov80%4 of 5
AwayKaganovych100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Elfemov5Kaganovych5n = 10split evenly
S2Elfemov3Kaganovych7n = 10Kaganovych took 7 of 10
S3Elfemov6Kaganovych4n = 10Elfemov took 6 of 10
S4Elfemov4Kaganovych5n = 9Kaganovych took 5 of 9
S5Elfemov1Kaganovych2n = 3Kaganovych took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricElfemovKaganovychE − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.641.2−1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovKaganovychBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 468 vs 341 / 54960.3%62.1%282 / 468 vs 341 / 549Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychElfemov 2.25/Kaganovych 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaganovych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 15:33I. Elfemov4111611133V. Kaganovych378117111
WSep 8 · 14:05I. Elfemov4111811113V. Kaganovych30611851
LSep 1 · 13:55I. Elfemov29108110V. Kaganovych361211133
LAug 25 · 13:05I. Elfemov3811611642V. Kaganovych47511911113
LAug 18 · 13:05I. Elfemov4210119121V. Kaganovych4512811143
WAug 11 · 14:05I. Elfemov3611113113V. Kaganovych37981191
LJul 28 · 14:55I. Elfemov47512119102V. Kaganovych511110711123
LJul 15 · 17:05I. Elfemov371081361V. Kaganovych45121111113
WJul 13 · 19:55I. Elfemov511111711113V. Kaganovych4381311562
LJun 23 · 12:35I. Elfemov346711101V. Kaganovych4111117123
I. Elfemov10
LSep 11 · 18:35I. Elfemov1.409111161Y. Bielokon2.7511135113WSep 11 · 17:06I. Elfemov1.4481612113R. Serhyenko2.6311141091WSep 11 · 15:33I. Elfemov2.5011611133V. Kaganovych1.508117111WSep 10 · 19:25I. Elfemov2.50613611113V. Sharpai1.50111111892WSep 10 · 17:55I. Elfemov3.0031112113V. Chumak1.361181021WSep 10 · 16:25I. Elfemov2.001121113113D. Boltenkov1.7391181552WSep 10 · 14:55I. Elfemov1.5311114123A. Azarov2.389411101WSep 10 · 13:25I. Elfemov2.63111149113A. Lifanov1.4446111122LSep 8 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8061111143I. Elfemov1.911166121WSep 8 · 18:05I. Elfemov1.50117115113R. Serhyenko2.5081171182
V. Kaganovych10
LSep 14 · 14:05O. Korobov1.611111123V. Kaganovych2.2069100LSep 11 · 19:35V. Kaganovych1.4013138101V. Sydorenko2.75151111123WSep 11 · 17:35Y. Bielokon3.409260V. Kaganovych1.301111113LSep 11 · 15:33I. Elfemov2.5011611133V. Kaganovych1.508117111WSep 11 · 14:35V. Kaganovych1.331111113A. Azarov3.252370WSep 11 · 13:35R. Serhyenko3.404850V. Kaganovych1.301111113WSep 8 · 18:35V. Kaganovych1.361411118113V. Sydorenko3.00126131152WSep 8 · 17:05V. Kaganovych1.331111113Y. Bielokon3.259980LSep 8 · 15:35V. Kaganovych1.448870V. Hainiuk2.631111113LSep 8 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.40611851I. Elfemov2.7511811113
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