TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105780
Played Sep 10Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
3111181210112––
Valentyn Chumak
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Valentyn Chumak below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 68 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Valentyn Chumak at 70.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 2–12 Valentyn Chumak Ivan Elfemov has won 2 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:39What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Chumak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-12 in 14
Chumak
Wrong
gap of 10 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1402 vs Chumak 1459
Chumak
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 80% vs Chumak 40%
Elfemov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 80% vs Chumak 60%
Elfemov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov +3 · Chumak +1
Elfemov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Chumak) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chumak form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 3.00 / Chumak 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Chumak)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13105780
Elfemov3.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 40 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Chumak1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 61 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it66% 35 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeElfemov1wins
AwayChumak9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChumak leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeElfemov25%1 of 4
AwayChumak100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Elfemov4Chumak6n = 10Chumak took 6 of 10
S2Elfemov6Chumak4n = 10Elfemov took 6 of 10
S3Elfemov3Chumak7n = 10Chumak took 7 of 10
S4Elfemov3Chumak6n = 9Chumak took 6 of 9
S5Elfemov0Chumak5n = 5Chumak took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricElfemovChumakE − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.343.5−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovChumakBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 463 vs 283 / 55960%50.6%278 / 463 vs 283 / 559Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakElfemov 3.00/Chumak 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.1%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Elfemov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 19:05I. Elfemov—1013371V. Chumak—121111113
LSep 2 · 14:25I. Elfemov—36100V. Chumak—1111123
LAug 25 · 16:05I. Elfemov—911581V. Chumak—11811113
LAug 21 · 18:05I. Elfemov—111310662V. Chumak—5111211113
LAug 18 · 15:05I. Elfemov—711761V. Chumak—11511113
LJul 30 · 16:05I. Elfemov—61113872V. Chumak—1181111113
WJul 9 · 17:05I. Elfemov—11119113V. Chumak—971151
LJun 25 · 17:25I. Elfemov—117111082V. Chumak—611812113
LJun 18 · 14:05I. Elfemov—1110111182V. Chumak—131227113
LJun 15 · 17:25I. Elfemov—115911102V. Chumak—911117123
I. Elfemov10
WSep 10 · 16:25I. Elfemov2.001121113113D. Boltenkov1.7391181552WSep 10 · 14:55I. Elfemov1.5311114123A. Azarov2.389411101WSep 10 · 13:25I. Elfemov2.63111149113A. Lifanov1.4446111122LSep 8 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8061111143I. Elfemov1.911166121WSep 8 · 18:05I. Elfemov1.50117115113R. Serhyenko2.5081171182WSep 8 · 16:05Y. Bielokon2.506540I. Elfemov1.501111113WSep 8 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.40611851I. Elfemov2.7511811113WSep 8 · 13:05V. Sydorenko2.3812781192I. Elfemov1.531011116113LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113
V. Chumak10
WSep 10 · 16:55V. Chumak1.331111123A. Azarov3.2599100LSep 10 · 15:55V. Sharpai1.73911511113V. Chumak2.0011411792LSep 10 · 14:25V. Chumak2.385101181D. Boltenkov1.5311125113WSep 7 · 19:05V. Chumak2.20118911113V. Sharpai1.6161111872LSep 7 · 17:05O. Korobov1.33117811133V. Chumak3.25711114112WSep 7 · 16:05V. Chumak1.911112113V. Kaganovych1.8071070LSep 7 · 15:05F. Chashchin1.611111103113V. Chumak2.2085121192WSep 7 · 13:35V. Chumak1.731111113V. Hainiuk2.006670WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113
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