TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13107256
Played Sep 10Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1192111181315115
Denys Boltenkov
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:03 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Boltenkov to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Denys Boltenkov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 96 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Denys Boltenkov at 54.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 3–1 Denys Boltenkov Denys Boltenkov has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:03What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Boltenkov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Elfemov
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1389 vs Boltenkov 1452
Boltenkov
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 80% vs Boltenkov 60%
Elfemov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 80% vs Boltenkov 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov +2 · Boltenkov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Boltenkov) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 2.00 / Boltenkov 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Boltenkov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13107256
Elfemov2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 40 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Boltenkov1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 14 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeElfemov3wins
AwayBoltenkov1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderElfemov leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeElfemov66.7%2 of 3
AwayBoltenkovn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Elfemov3Boltenkov1n = 4Elfemov took 3 of 4
S2Elfemov1Boltenkov3n = 4Boltenkov took 3 of 4
S3Elfemov4Boltenkov0n = 4Elfemov took 4 of 4
S4Elfemov3Boltenkov1n = 4Elfemov took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home375%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricElfemovBoltenkovE − BBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match42.036.2+5.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovBoltenkovBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 462 vs 17 / 2760%63%277 / 462 vs 17 / 27Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltenkovElfemov 2.00/Boltenkov 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Boltenkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Elfemov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 3 · 18:05I. Elfemov—11711113D. Boltenkov—811571
LSep 2 · 15:25I. Elfemov—13611882D. Boltenkov—1111611113
WAug 26 · 12:35I. Elfemov—91111113D. Boltenkov—115571
WAug 21 · 14:35I. Elfemov—14411113D. Boltenkov—1211851
I. Elfemov10
WSep 10 · 17:55I. Elfemov3.0031112113V. Chumak1.361181021WSep 10 · 14:55I. Elfemov1.5311114123A. Azarov2.389411101WSep 10 · 13:25I. Elfemov2.63111149113A. Lifanov1.4446111122LSep 8 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8061111143I. Elfemov1.911166121WSep 8 · 18:05I. Elfemov1.50117115113R. Serhyenko2.5081171182WSep 8 · 16:05Y. Bielokon2.506540I. Elfemov1.501111113WSep 8 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.40611851I. Elfemov2.7511811113WSep 8 · 13:05V. Sydorenko2.3812781192I. Elfemov1.531011116113LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113
D. Boltenkov10
LSep 10 · 15:25D. Boltenkov2.1012119252A. Lifanov1.671071111113WSep 10 · 14:25V. Chumak2.385101181D. Boltenkov1.5311125113WSep 3 · 19:35V. Sydorenko2.63713481D. Boltenkov1.44111111113LSep 3 · 18:05D. Boltenkov1.73811571I. Elfemov2.0011711113WSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113LSep 3 · 14:05A. Azarov5.50941111113D. Boltenkov1.1311118642WSep 3 · 13:05Y. Bielokon2.5051090D. Boltenkov1.501112113WSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 18:55A. Azarov3.408560D. Boltenkov1.301111113WSep 2 · 17:25Y. Bielokon2.2581111462D. Boltenkov1.57115811113
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