TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111196
Played Sep 11Finished
Ruslan Serhyenko
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811511––––
Vitalii Kaganovych
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched — 72.4% is still 72.4%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
72.4%
72.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Serhyenko above · Vitalii Kaganovych below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 50 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 72.4%
50 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Serhyenko 29–39 Vitalii Kaganovych Ruslan Serhyenko has won 29 of their 68 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:33What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kaganovych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-39 in 68
Kaganovych
Correct
gap of 10 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serhyenko 1182 vs Kaganovych 1467
Kaganovych
Correct
both rated, 285 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serhyenko 0% vs Kaganovych 60%
Kaganovych
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serhyenko 10% vs Kaganovych 60%
Kaganovych
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Serhyenko -5 · Kaganovych +2
Serhyenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Kaganovych) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaganovych form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerhyenko 3.40 / Kaganovych 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Kaganovych)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13111196
Serhyenko3.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog35% won 66 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back12% 8 of 65
Kaganovych1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 129 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it96% 66 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it82% 91 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSerhyenko5wins
AwayKaganovych5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerhyenko50%2 of 4
AwayKaganovych50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serhyenko4Kaganovych6n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S2Serhyenko5Kaganovych5n = 10split evenly
S3Serhyenko4Kaganovych6n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S4Serhyenko3Kaganovych3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSerhyenkoKaganovychS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.337.7−2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerhyenkoKaganovychBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 598 vs 342 / 54943.7%62.3%261 / 598 vs 342 / 549Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychSerhyenko 3.40/Kaganovych 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.9%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kaganovych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 12:35R. Serhyenko—84110V. Kaganovych—1111133
WAug 31 · 16:35R. Serhyenko—911811143V. Kaganovych—118118122
WAug 25 · 16:35R. Serhyenko—61111113V. Kaganovych—116981
WAug 24 · 18:05R. Serhyenko—1112133V. Kaganovych—810110
LJul 27 · 17:25R. Serhyenko—117681V. Kaganovych—81111113
WJul 15 · 18:35R. Serhyenko—1114113V. Kaganovych—71290
WJul 14 · 14:55R. Serhyenko—1161111113V. Kaganovych—13117962
LJun 1 · 14:05R. Serhyenko—911691V. Kaganovych—11611113
LMay 27 · 14:35R. Serhyenko—114631V. Kaganovych—61111113
LMay 13 · 19:05R. Serhyenko—61270V. Kaganovych—1114113
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 8 · 19:05Y. Bielokon1.501111113R. Serhyenko2.507990LSep 8 · 18:05I. Elfemov1.50117115113R. Serhyenko2.5081171182LSep 8 · 16:35V. Sydorenko2.001611113R. Serhyenko1.7314690LSep 8 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.301111113R. Serhyenko3.403940LSep 8 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.401111133R. Serhyenko2.7584110LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 8 · 18:35V. Kaganovych1.361411118113V. Sydorenko3.00126131152WSep 8 · 17:05V. Kaganovych1.331111113Y. Bielokon3.259980LSep 8 · 15:35V. Kaganovych1.448870V. Hainiuk2.631111113LSep 8 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.40611851I. Elfemov2.7511811113WSep 8 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.401111133R. Serhyenko2.7584110WSep 7 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.50118391V. Kaganovych1.5061111113WSep 7 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.8311811113V. Sharpai1.83411781LSep 7 · 16:05V. Chumak1.911112113V. Kaganovych1.8071070LSep 7 · 14:05O. Korobov1.7313511113V. Kaganovych2.001111241WSep 7 · 13:05F. Chashchin2.2571112462V. Kaganovych1.571191011113
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