TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106114
Played Sep 10Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111311611118119
Viktor Sharpai
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeViktor Sharpai to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Viktor Sharpai below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Viktor Sharpai at 64.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 3–5 Viktor Sharpai Ivan Elfemov has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sharpai
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Sharpai
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1415 vs Sharpai 1409
Elfemov
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 80% vs Sharpai 60%
Elfemov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 80% vs Sharpai 60%
Elfemov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov +4 · Sharpai +1
Elfemov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Sharpai) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 2.50 / Sharpai 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Sharpai)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13106114
Elfemov2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 40 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Sharpai1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 51 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it71% 39 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeElfemov3wins
AwaySharpai5wins
1 of 8 to a deciderSharpai leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeElfemovn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySharpai57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Elfemov1Sharpai7n = 8Sharpai took 7 of 8
S2Elfemov3Sharpai5n = 8Sharpai took 5 of 8
S3Elfemov3Sharpai5n = 8Sharpai took 5 of 8
S4Elfemov3Sharpai2n = 5Elfemov took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricElfemovSharpaiE − SBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match35.137.8−2.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovSharpaiBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 464 vs 258 / 54960.1%47%279 / 464 vs 258 / 549Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SharpaiElfemov 2.50/Sharpai 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Sharpai · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Elfemov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 1 · 18:55I. Elfemov—12670V. Sharpai—1411113
WJul 29 · 15:35I. Elfemov—91211113V. Sharpai—1110891
WJul 22 · 16:35I. Elfemov—91111113V. Sharpai—119951
LJul 21 · 18:05I. Elfemov—9880V. Sharpai—1111113
LJul 15 · 16:05I. Elfemov—7980V. Sharpai—1111113
LJul 13 · 14:25I. Elfemov—1161091V. Sharpai—61112113
LJul 8 · 19:05I. Elfemov—1181191V. Sharpai—13117113
WJul 7 · 18:25I. Elfemov—811611113V. Sharpai—11811972
I. Elfemov10
WSep 10 · 17:55I. Elfemov3.0031112113V. Chumak1.361181021WSep 10 · 16:25I. Elfemov2.001121113113D. Boltenkov1.7391181552WSep 10 · 14:55I. Elfemov1.5311114123A. Azarov2.389411101WSep 10 · 13:25I. Elfemov2.63111149113A. Lifanov1.4446111122LSep 8 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8061111143I. Elfemov1.911166121WSep 8 · 18:05I. Elfemov1.50117115113R. Serhyenko2.5081171182WSep 8 · 16:05Y. Bielokon2.506540I. Elfemov1.501111113WSep 8 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.40611851I. Elfemov2.7511811113WSep 8 · 13:05V. Sydorenko2.3812781192I. Elfemov1.531011116113LSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371
V. Sharpai10
WSep 10 · 18:25V. Sharpai1.6731115113D. Boltenkov2.101121361LSep 10 · 17:25V. Sharpai1.6761111382A. Lifanov2.10119811113WSep 10 · 15:55V. Sharpai1.73911511113V. Chumak2.0011411792WSep 10 · 13:55V. Sharpai1.5014118113A. Azarov2.501261141LSep 7 · 19:05V. Chumak2.20118911113V. Sharpai1.6161111872LSep 7 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.8311811113V. Sharpai1.83411781WSep 7 · 16:35F. Chashchin2.75115971V. Sharpai1.4031111113WSep 7 · 14:35V. Hainiuk2.20310100V. Sharpai1.611112123LSep 7 · 12:35O. Korobov1.5311511113V. Sharpai2.38611661WSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113
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