TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116291
Played Sep 11Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111113115611––
Yevhen Bielokon
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeIvan Elfemov to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Yevhen Bielokon below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 77 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Ivan Elfemov at 69.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 14–9 Yevhen Bielokon Yevhen Bielokon has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Elfemov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-9 in 23
Elfemov
Wrong
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1448 vs Bielokon 1195
Elfemov
Wrong
both rated, 254 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 100% vs Bielokon 40%
Elfemov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 90% vs Bielokon 20%
Elfemov
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov +5 · Bielokon -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Elfemov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 1.40 / Bielokon 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Elfemov)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13116291
Elfemov1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 121 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it82% 89 of 108
Bielokon2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 45 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeElfemov6wins
AwayBielokon4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderElfemov leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeElfemov83.3%5 of 6
AwayBielokon75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Elfemov6Bielokon4n = 10Elfemov took 6 of 10
S2Elfemov7Bielokon3n = 10Elfemov took 7 of 10
S3Elfemov5Bielokon5n = 10split evenly
S4Elfemov6Bielokon2n = 8Elfemov took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricElfemovBielokonE − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.336.2+2.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovBielokonBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 467 vs 262 / 55560.4%47.2%282 / 467 vs 262 / 555Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ElfemovElfemov 1.40/Bielokon 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Elfemov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bielokon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 16:05I. Elfemov—1111113Y. Bielokon—6540
WSep 3 · 16:35I. Elfemov—11117103Y. Bielokon—971181
LSep 2 · 18:25I. Elfemov—491111Y. Bielokon—11117113
WAug 26 · 19:05I. Elfemov—11116123Y. Bielokon—8911101
LAug 21 · 19:05I. Elfemov—1199111Y. Bielokon—81111133
WAug 16 · 19:55I. Elfemov—111011113Y. Bielokon—912981
LAug 6 · 13:35I. Elfemov—91151172Y. Bielokon—118116113
LJul 29 · 13:35I. Elfemov—51191282Y. Bielokon—1191110113
WJul 28 · 17:55I. Elfemov—1111113Y. Bielokon—7970
WJul 22 · 19:05I. Elfemov—91111113Y. Bielokon—117761
I. Elfemov10
WSep 11 · 17:06I. Elfemov1.4481612113R. Serhyenko2.6311141091WSep 11 · 15:33I. Elfemov2.5011611133V. Kaganovych1.508117111WSep 10 · 19:25I. Elfemov2.50613611113V. Sharpai1.50111111892WSep 10 · 17:55I. Elfemov3.0031112113V. Chumak1.361181021WSep 10 · 16:25I. Elfemov2.001121113113D. Boltenkov1.7391181552WSep 10 · 14:55I. Elfemov1.5311114123A. Azarov2.389411101WSep 10 · 13:25I. Elfemov2.63111149113A. Lifanov1.4446111122LSep 8 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8061111143I. Elfemov1.911166121WSep 8 · 18:05I. Elfemov1.50117115113R. Serhyenko2.5081171182WSep 8 · 16:05Y. Bielokon2.506540I. Elfemov1.501111113
Y. Bielokon10
LSep 11 · 17:35Y. Bielokon3.409260V. Kaganovych1.301111113LSep 11 · 16:35Y. Bielokon1.831112129122A. Azarov1.839141011143LSep 11 · 15:05Y. Bielokon1.441111371R. Serhyenko2.6313711113WSep 11 · 13:05Y. Bielokon1.831311123V. Sydorenko1.83115100WSep 8 · 19:05Y. Bielokon1.501111113R. Serhyenko2.507990LSep 8 · 17:05V. Kaganovych1.331111113Y. Bielokon3.259980LSep 8 · 16:05Y. Bielokon2.506540I. Elfemov1.501111113LSep 8 · 15:05V. Sydorenko1.8331512113Y. Bielokon1.8311131081LSep 8 · 13:35Y. Bielokon2.20571171V. Hainiuk1.6111117113LSep 3 · 18:35A. Azarov1.91117113113Y. Bielokon1.8021161142
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