TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126715
Played Sep 14Finished
Oleksii Korobov
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111131412114––
Ivan Elfemov
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeOleksii Korobov to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Korobov above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 75 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Oleksii Korobov at 76.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Korobov 5–2 Ivan Elfemov Ivan Elfemov has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:47What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Korobov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Korobov
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobov 1535 vs Elfemov 1393
Korobov
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobov 20% vs Elfemov 40%
Elfemov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobov 60% vs Elfemov 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobov -2 · Elfemov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Korobov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobov 1.30 / Elfemov 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Korobov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13126715
Korobov1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite71% won 52 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it80% 36 of 45
Elfemov3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 38 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back26% 16 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKorobov5wins
AwayElfemov2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderKorobov leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorobov66.7%4 of 6
AwayElfemovn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobov6Elfemov1n = 7Korobov took 6 of 7
S2Korobov5Elfemov2n = 7Korobov took 5 of 7
S3Korobov6Elfemov1n = 7Korobov took 6 of 7
S4Korobov1Elfemov2n = 3Elfemov took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home457%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKorobovElfemovK − EBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match37.631.0+6.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobovElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 145 vs 284 / 47261.4%60.2%89 / 145 vs 284 / 472Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorobovKorobov 1.30/Elfemov 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Korobov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Korobov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 21 · 14:05O. Korobov331111113I. Elfemov218940
LJul 13 · 15:55O. Korobov3911111071I. Elfemov4041312113
WJul 7 · 14:25O. Korobov351111133I. Elfemov2146110
WJul 1 · 18:05O. Korobov331111113I. Elfemov206680
WJun 24 · 15:35O. Korobov4071111113I. Elfemov37119981
WJun 18 · 18:05O. Korobov361311123I. Elfemov29118100
LJun 2 · 16:35O. Korobov4711911792I. Elfemov49911711113
O. Korobov10
LSep 14 · 17:05O. Korobov1.44127881V. Sharpai2.63101111113LSep 14 · 15:35O. Korobov1.3311115172V. Hainiuk3.25951111113WSep 14 · 14:05O. Korobov1.611111123V. Kaganovych2.2069100LSep 14 · 12:35O. Korobov1.251110711112V. Sydorenko3.75912114133LSep 7 · 18:35O. Korobov1.83117871F. Chashchin1.8371111113WSep 7 · 17:05O. Korobov1.33117811133V. Chumak3.25711114112WSep 7 · 15:35O. Korobov1.361111113V. Hainiuk3.007950WSep 7 · 14:05O. Korobov1.7313511113V. Kaganovych2.001111241WSep 7 · 12:35O. Korobov1.5311511113V. Sharpai2.38611661WAug 24 · 18:35O. Korobov1.7351411113V. Sharpai2.001112861
I. Elfemov10
LSep 14 · 17:35I. Elfemov2.00611791V. Hainiuk1.7311711113WSep 14 · 16:35I. Elfemov1.5011511113V. Sydorenko2.50711691WSep 14 · 15:05I. Elfemov2.106111013113V. Sharpai1.67119121192LSep 14 · 13:05I. Elfemov2.2511871192V. Kaganovych1.57711116113LSep 11 · 18:35I. Elfemov1.409111161Y. Bielokon2.7511135113WSep 11 · 17:06I. Elfemov1.4481612113R. Serhyenko2.6311141091WSep 11 · 15:33I. Elfemov2.5011611133V. Kaganovych1.508117111WSep 10 · 19:25I. Elfemov2.50613611113V. Sharpai1.50111111892WSep 10 · 17:55I. Elfemov3.0031112113V. Chumak1.361181021WSep 10 · 16:25I. Elfemov2.001121113113D. Boltenkov1.7391181552
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