TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13127056
Played Sep 14Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611117711911––
Volodymyr Hainiuk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Hainiuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Volodymyr Hainiuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Volodymyr Hainiuk at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 11–9 Volodymyr Hainiuk Volodymyr Hainiuk has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:04What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hainiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Elfemov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1405 vs Hainiuk 1416
Hainiuk
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 60% vs Hainiuk 100%
Hainiuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 80% vs Hainiuk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov +2 · Hainiuk +5
Hainiuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hainiuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hainiuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 2.00 / Hainiuk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hainiuk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13127056
Elfemov2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 38 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back26% 16 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Hainiuk1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 101 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it78% 69 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeElfemov4wins
AwayHainiuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHainiuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeElfemov33.3%1 of 3
AwayHainiuk57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Elfemov3Hainiuk7n = 10Hainiuk took 7 of 10
S2Elfemov4Hainiuk6n = 10Hainiuk took 6 of 10
S3Elfemov2Hainiuk8n = 10Hainiuk took 8 of 10
S4Elfemov4Hainiuk3n = 7Elfemov took 4 of 7
S5Elfemov3Hainiuk1n = 4Elfemov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricElfemovHainiukE − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.438.1−3.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovHainiukBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 471 vs 366 / 67160.3%54.6%284 / 471 vs 366 / 671Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HainiukElfemov 2.00/Hainiuk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hainiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hainiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 19:35I. Elfemov351166121V. Hainiuk4261111143
WSep 1 · 20:25I. Elfemov47711711113V. Hainiuk3611711432
LAug 25 · 19:35I. Elfemov4011116932V. Hainiuk39241111113
WAug 18 · 17:35I. Elfemov4212613113V. Hainiuk3410111121
WAug 13 · 13:35I. Elfemov43731111113V. Hainiuk4111119462
LAug 11 · 19:35I. Elfemov2261060V. Hainiuk341112113
LJul 28 · 16:25I. Elfemov248880V. Hainiuk331111113
LJul 21 · 19:35I. Elfemov198740V. Hainiuk331111113
LJul 16 · 16:25I. Elfemov27611551V. Hainiuk4111811113
WJul 13 · 16:55I. Elfemov451111012113V. Hainiuk48116121092
I. Elfemov10
WSep 14 · 16:35I. Elfemov1.5011511113V. Sydorenko2.50711691WSep 14 · 15:05I. Elfemov2.106111013113V. Sharpai1.67119121192LSep 14 · 13:05I. Elfemov2.2511871192V. Kaganovych1.57711116113LSep 11 · 18:35I. Elfemov1.409111161Y. Bielokon2.7511135113WSep 11 · 17:06I. Elfemov1.4481612113R. Serhyenko2.6311141091WSep 11 · 15:33I. Elfemov2.5011611133V. Kaganovych1.508117111WSep 10 · 19:25I. Elfemov2.50613611113V. Sharpai1.50111111892WSep 10 · 17:55I. Elfemov3.0031112113V. Chumak1.361181021WSep 10 · 16:25I. Elfemov2.001121113113D. Boltenkov1.7391181552WSep 10 · 14:55I. Elfemov1.5311114123A. Azarov2.389411101
V. Hainiuk10
WSep 14 · 15:35O. Korobov1.3311115172V. Hainiuk3.25951111113WSep 14 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.531111113V. Sydorenko2.382840WSep 14 · 13:35V. Sharpai1.5371140V. Hainiuk2.381113113WSep 8 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8061111143I. Elfemov1.911166121WSep 8 · 17:35V. Sydorenko2.3846111282V. Hainiuk1.531111710113WSep 8 · 15:35V. Kaganovych1.448870V. Hainiuk2.631111113WSep 8 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.301111113R. Serhyenko3.403940WSep 8 · 13:35Y. Bielokon2.20571171V. Hainiuk1.6111117113LSep 7 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.50118391V. Kaganovych1.5061111113LSep 7 · 17:35F. Chashchin2.10661211113V. Hainiuk1.67111110692
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