TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126719
Played Sep 14Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117511116119––
Vitalii Sydorenko
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Elfemov to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Vitalii Sydorenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Elfemov at 65.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 13–8 Vitalii Sydorenko Vitalii Sydorenko has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:47What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Elfemov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-8 in 21
Elfemov
Correct
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1396 vs Sydorenko 1306
Elfemov
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 60% vs Sydorenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 80% vs Sydorenko 50%
Elfemov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov +1 · Sydorenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Elfemov) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sydorenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 1.50 / Sydorenko 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Elfemov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13126719
Elfemov1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 118 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it94% 64 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it82% 87 of 106
Sydorenko2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 84 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back23% 29 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeElfemov7wins
AwaySydorenko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderElfemov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeElfemov83.3%5 of 6
AwaySydorenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Elfemov6Sydorenko4n = 10Elfemov took 6 of 10
S2Elfemov7Sydorenko3n = 10Elfemov took 7 of 10
S3Elfemov7Sydorenko3n = 10Elfemov took 7 of 10
S4Elfemov4Sydorenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Elfemov2Sydorenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricElfemovSydorenkoE − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.337.2+5.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovSydorenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 470 vs 260 / 58260.2%44.7%283 / 470 vs 260 / 582Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ElfemovElfemov 1.50/Sydorenko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Elfemov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Elfemov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 13:05I. Elfemov491011116113V. Sydorenko4712781192
LSep 3 · 14:35I. Elfemov35811791V. Sydorenko3811511113
LSep 1 · 14:55I. Elfemov47761113102V. Sydorenko541111911123
WAug 26 · 18:05I. Elfemov45111111123V. Sydorenko335135101
WAug 21 · 12:35I. Elfemov4212118113V. Sydorenko341051181
WAug 18 · 18:35I. Elfemov49111278113V. Sydorenko48910111172
WAug 11 · 13:05I. Elfemov4271112123V. Sydorenko3611510101
WJul 29 · 14:35I. Elfemov331111113V. Sydorenko146260
LJul 21 · 16:05I. Elfemov481110116102V. Sydorenko47612611123
WJul 16 · 19:25I. Elfemov331111113V. Sydorenko219750
I. Elfemov10
LSep 14 · 17:35I. Elfemov2.00611791V. Hainiuk1.7311711113WSep 14 · 15:05I. Elfemov2.106111013113V. Sharpai1.67119121192LSep 14 · 13:05I. Elfemov2.2511871192V. Kaganovych1.57711116113LSep 11 · 18:35I. Elfemov1.409111161Y. Bielokon2.7511135113WSep 11 · 17:06I. Elfemov1.4481612113R. Serhyenko2.6311141091WSep 11 · 15:33I. Elfemov2.5011611133V. Kaganovych1.508117111WSep 10 · 19:25I. Elfemov2.50613611113V. Sharpai1.50111111892WSep 10 · 17:55I. Elfemov3.0031112113V. Chumak1.361181021WSep 10 · 16:25I. Elfemov2.001121113113D. Boltenkov1.7391181552WSep 10 · 14:55I. Elfemov1.5311114123A. Azarov2.389411101
V. Sydorenko10
LSep 14 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.531111113V. Sydorenko2.382840WSep 14 · 12:35O. Korobov1.251110711112V. Sydorenko3.75912114133WSep 11 · 19:35V. Kaganovych1.4013138101V. Sydorenko2.75151111123LSep 11 · 18:05V. Sydorenko1.83681131A. Azarov1.8311118113WSep 11 · 16:05R. Serhyenko1.91711591V. Sydorenko1.8011211113LSep 11 · 13:05Y. Bielokon1.831311123V. Sydorenko1.83115100LSep 8 · 18:35V. Kaganovych1.361411118113V. Sydorenko3.00126131152LSep 8 · 17:35V. Sydorenko2.3846111282V. Hainiuk1.531111710113WSep 8 · 16:35V. Sydorenko2.001611113R. Serhyenko1.7314690WSep 8 · 15:05V. Sydorenko1.8331512113Y. Bielokon1.8311131081
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