TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126505
Played Sep 14Finished
Oleksii Korobov
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11910127111141113
Vitalii Sydorenko
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 81.3% is still 81.3%
Graded at full timeOleksii Korobov to win
81.3%
81.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksii Korobov above · Vitalii Sydorenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 99 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Oleksii Korobov at 81.3%
99 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Korobov 14–4 Vitalii Sydorenko Vitalii Sydorenko has won 4 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Korobov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-4 in 18
Korobov
Wrong
gap of 10 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobov 1577 vs Sydorenko 1299
Korobov
Wrong
both rated, 278 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobov 80% vs Sydorenko 40%
Korobov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobov 80% vs Sydorenko 40%
Korobov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobov -1 · Sydorenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Korobov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sydorenko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobov 1.25 / Sydorenko 3.75
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Korobov)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13126505
Korobov1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 52 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it80% 36 of 45
Sydorenko3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 84 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back23% 29 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKorobov8wins
AwaySydorenko2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKorobov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorobov87.5%7 of 8
AwaySydorenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobov8Sydorenko2n = 10Korobov took 8 of 10
S2Korobov9Sydorenko1n = 10Korobov took 9 of 10
S3Korobov5Sydorenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Korobov4Sydorenko3n = 7Korobov took 4 of 7
S5Korobov2Sydorenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKorobovSydorenkoK − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.933.1+6.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobovSydorenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 141 vs 260 / 58262.4%44.7%88 / 141 vs 260 / 582Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorobovKorobov 1.25/Sydorenko 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.3%
Korobov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sydorenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 3 · 17:05O. Korobov3911116113V. Sydorenko32481191
WJul 21 · 17:05O. Korobov371111153V. Sydorenko2676130
WJul 7 · 17:55O. Korobov4211119113V. Sydorenko28651161
WJul 1 · 12:35O. Korobov44111156113V. Sydorenko4049111152
LJun 24 · 18:35O. Korobov41115101142V. Sydorenko48511129113
WJun 18 · 16:35O. Korobov331111113V. Sydorenko213990
WJun 10 · 18:35O. Korobov331111113V. Sydorenko229580
WJun 2 · 18:35O. Korobov46111113113V. Sydorenko31531581
WMay 26 · 17:05O. Korobov46611117113V. Sydorenko3811651152
LApr 22 · 19:25O. Korobov3851111742V. Sydorenko45117511113
O. Korobov10
WSep 14 · 14:05O. Korobov1.611111123V. Kaganovych2.2069100LSep 7 · 18:35O. Korobov1.83117871F. Chashchin1.8371111113WSep 7 · 17:05O. Korobov1.33117811133V. Chumak3.25711114112WSep 7 · 15:35O. Korobov1.361111113V. Hainiuk3.007950WSep 7 · 14:05O. Korobov1.7313511113V. Kaganovych2.001111241WSep 7 · 12:35O. Korobov1.5311511113V. Sharpai2.38611661WAug 24 · 18:35O. Korobov1.7351411113V. Sharpai2.001112861WAug 24 · 17:05O. Korobov1.3611911113V. Chumak3.00411951WAug 24 · 15:35O. Korobov1.441111123V. Hainiuk2.6382100WAug 24 · 14:05O. Korobov1.441611711123R. Serhyenko2.63189119102
V. Sydorenko10
LSep 14 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.531111113V. Sydorenko2.382840WSep 11 · 19:35V. Kaganovych1.4013138101V. Sydorenko2.75151111123LSep 11 · 18:05V. Sydorenko1.83681131A. Azarov1.8311118113WSep 11 · 16:05R. Serhyenko1.91711591V. Sydorenko1.8011211113LSep 11 · 13:05Y. Bielokon1.831311123V. Sydorenko1.83115100LSep 8 · 18:35V. Kaganovych1.361411118113V. Sydorenko3.00126131152LSep 8 · 17:35V. Sydorenko2.3846111282V. Hainiuk1.531111710113WSep 8 · 16:35V. Sydorenko2.001611113R. Serhyenko1.7314690WSep 8 · 15:05V. Sydorenko1.8331512113Y. Bielokon1.8311131081LSep 8 · 13:05V. Sydorenko2.3812781192I. Elfemov1.531011116113
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