TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482390
Played Aug 24Finished
Oleksii Korobov
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
16181197111191210
Ruslan Serhyenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:10 and never touched — 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timeOleksii Korobov to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Korobov above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 16-18
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 114 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Oleksii Korobov at 70.5%
114 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Korobov 7–7 Ruslan Serhyenko Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:10What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Korobov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobov 1538 vs Serhyenko 1301
Korobov
Correct
both rated, 237 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobov 60% vs Serhyenko 40%
Korobov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobov 60% vs Serhyenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobov -1 · Serhyenko -3
Serhyenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Korobov) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobov 1.44 / Serhyenko 2.63
Signal prob.73% / 28%
Edge (Korobov)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482390
Korobov1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 53 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it78% 38 of 49
Serhyenko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 63 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKorobov5wins
AwaySerhyenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorobov50%3 of 6
AwaySerhyenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobov6Serhyenko4n = 10Korobov took 6 of 10
S2Korobov7Serhyenko3n = 10Korobov took 7 of 10
S3Korobov5Serhyenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Korobov2Serhyenko5n = 7Serhyenko took 5 of 7
S5Korobov1Serhyenko2n = 3Serhyenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKorobovSerhyenkoK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.438.0−0.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobovSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 132 vs 261 / 58960.6%44.3%80 / 132 vs 261 / 589Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorobovKorobov 1.44/Serhyenko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Korobov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Korobov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 27 · 13:25O. Korobov—11114272R. Serhyenko—951111113
WJul 7 · 19:55O. Korobov—111187133R. Serhyenko—761111112
WJul 1 · 16:35O. Korobov—91214113R. Serhyenko—11101261
LJun 24 · 12:35O. Korobov—11511982R. Serhyenko—811811113
LJun 18 · 14:35O. Korobov—76100R. Serhyenko—1111123
WJun 10 · 13:05O. Korobov—81111123R. Serhyenko—1173101
WMay 26 · 12:35O. Korobov—1111113R. Serhyenko—7990
LApr 22 · 17:25O. Korobov—1527101R. Serhyenko—131111123
LApr 14 · 17:05O. Korobov—1111841R. Serhyenko—13911113
WMar 9 · 18:05O. Korobov—1111113R. Serhyenko—5760
O. Korobov10
WAug 24 · 18:35O. Korobov1.7351411113V. Sharpai2.001112861WAug 24 · 17:05O. Korobov1.3611911113V. Chumak3.00411951WAug 24 · 15:35O. Korobov1.441111123V. Hainiuk2.6382100LAug 24 · 12:35O. Korobov1.53681151V. Kaganovych2.3811117113WAug 17 · 18:35V. Kaganovych2.1061070O. Korobov1.671112113WAug 17 · 17:35O. Korobov1.571213113V. Hainiuk2.25101180WAug 17 · 16:35O. Korobov1.281111113V. Sydorenko3.506790LAug 17 · 15:05O. Korobov1.33111411952V. Chumak3.251312511113LAug 17 · 13:05O. Korobov1.5011412952M. Skliar2.507111011113LAug 10 · 19:25A. Lifanov2.00711117133O. Korobov1.73115611112
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 2 · 19:25R. Serhyenko2.6311117562Y. Bielokon1.44571111113LSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:25R. Serhyenko2.63591411113I. Elfemov1.44111112692LSep 2 · 14:55R. Serhyenko1.8010790A. Azarov1.911211113LSep 2 · 13:25R. Serhyenko2.506450D. Boltenkov1.501111113WAug 31 · 19:05V. Chumak1.614119161R. Serhyenko2.2011711183LAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.3390R. Serhyenko3.25101LAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970
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