TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482326
Played Aug 24Finished
Oleksii Korobov
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114911119115––
Valentyn Chumak
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:57 and never touched — 76.9% is still 76.9%
Graded at full timeOleksii Korobov to win
76.9%
76.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Korobov above · Valentyn Chumak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Oleksii Korobov at 76.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Korobov 7–2 Valentyn Chumak Valentyn Chumak has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:57What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Korobov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Korobov
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobov 1549 vs Chumak 1482
Korobov
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobov 80% vs Chumak 100%
Chumak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobov 60% vs Chumak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobov +2 · Chumak +5
Chumak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Korobov) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chumak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobov 1.36 / Chumak 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Korobov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482326
Korobov1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 53 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it78% 38 of 49
Chumak3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 67 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKorobov7wins
AwayChumak2wins
3 of 9 to a deciderKorobov leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorobov100%5 of 5
AwayChumak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobov5Chumak4n = 9Korobov took 5 of 9
S2Korobov7Chumak2n = 9Korobov took 7 of 9
S3Korobov8Chumak1n = 9Korobov took 8 of 9
S4Korobov2Chumak3n = 5Chumak took 3 of 5
S5Korobov2Chumak1n = 3Korobov took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKorobovChumakK − CBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match39.933.0+6.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobovChumakBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 134 vs 269 / 53861.2%50%82 / 134 vs 269 / 538Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorobovKorobov 1.36/Chumak 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Korobov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Korobov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 17 · 15:05O. Korobov—111411952V. Chumak—1312511113
WAug 10 · 15:55O. Korobov—11119113V. Chumak—861121
WAug 3 · 18:35O. Korobov—591213113V. Chumak—1111101182
WJul 27 · 17:55O. Korobov—811117113V. Chumak—11461192
LJun 18 · 12:35O. Korobov—881181V. Chumak—11115113
WJun 10 · 17:35O. Korobov—1111113V. Chumak—9460
WApr 14 · 13:35O. Korobov—1111113V. Chumak—5980
WApr 7 · 17:05O. Korobov—1111123V. Chumak—73100
WMar 31 · 17:35O. Korobov—1112113V. Chumak—81090
O. Korobov10
WAug 24 · 18:35O. Korobov1.7351411113V. Sharpai2.001112861WAug 24 · 15:35O. Korobov1.441111123V. Hainiuk2.6382100WAug 24 · 14:05O. Korobov1.441611711123R. Serhyenko2.63189119102LAug 24 · 12:35O. Korobov1.53681151V. Kaganovych2.3811117113WAug 17 · 18:35V. Kaganovych2.1061070O. Korobov1.671112113WAug 17 · 17:35O. Korobov1.571213113V. Hainiuk2.25101180WAug 17 · 16:35O. Korobov1.281111113V. Sydorenko3.506790LAug 17 · 15:05O. Korobov1.33111411952V. Chumak3.251312511113LAug 17 · 13:05O. Korobov1.5011412952M. Skliar2.507111011113LAug 10 · 19:25A. Lifanov2.00711117133O. Korobov1.73115611112
V. Chumak10
WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Azarov2.009290WSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.10119371V. Chumak1.6761111113WAug 17 · 15:05O. Korobov1.33111411952V. Chumak3.251312511113
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