TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12445262
Played Aug 17Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111012711––––
Oleksii Korobov
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeOleksii Korobov to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Oleksii Korobov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 57 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Oleksii Korobov at 60.3%
57 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 5–7 Oleksii Korobov Vitalii Kaganovych has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:55What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Korobov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Korobov
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1498 vs Korobov 1553
Korobov
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 80% vs Korobov 40%
Kaganovych
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 70% vs Korobov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych -1 · Korobov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Korobov) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Korobov form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 2.10 / Korobov 1.67
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Korobov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12445262
Kaganovych2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 21 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Korobov1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 51 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 36 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych5wins
AwayKorobov5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych66.7%2 of 3
AwayKorobov57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych3Korobov7n = 10Korobov took 7 of 10
S2Kaganovych4Korobov6n = 10Korobov took 6 of 10
S3Kaganovych5Korobov5n = 10split evenly
S4Kaganovych5Korobov1n = 6Kaganovych took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychKorobovKaganovych − KorobovBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.535.9−1.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychKorobovBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 544 vs 80 / 13161.8%61.1%336 / 544 vs 80 / 131Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorobovKaganovych 2.10/Korobov 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.8%
Korobov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Korobov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 18:35V. Kaganovych—61070O. Korobov—1112113
LAug 10 · 18:25V. Kaganovych—5430O. Korobov—1111113
WAug 3 · 12:35V. Kaganovych—91111113O. Korobov—117841
WJul 27 · 19:25V. Kaganovych—117711113O. Korobov—81111692
LJul 13 · 17:25V. Kaganovych—81100O. Korobov—1111123
WJun 2 · 15:05V. Kaganovych—51111113O. Korobov—117491
WApr 22 · 13:55V. Kaganovych—1111113O. Korobov—9570
WApr 14 · 19:05V. Kaganovych—131111123O. Korobov—1596101
LApr 7 · 14:05V. Kaganovych—11991182O. Korobov—611118113
LMar 17 · 17:35V. Kaganovych—981361O. Korobov—111111113
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kaganovych1.501211133I. Elfemov2.50108110LAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671WAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781LAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 15:05V. Kaganovych1.8011911113V. Chumak1.91911931LAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113
O. Korobov10
WAug 24 · 18:35O. Korobov1.7351411113V. Sharpai2.001112861WAug 24 · 17:05O. Korobov1.3611911113V. Chumak3.00411951WAug 24 · 15:35O. Korobov1.441111123V. Hainiuk2.6382100WAug 24 · 14:05O. Korobov1.441611711123R. Serhyenko2.63189119102LAug 24 · 12:35O. Korobov1.53681151V. Kaganovych2.3811117113WAug 17 · 17:35O. Korobov1.571213113V. Hainiuk2.25101180WAug 17 · 16:35O. Korobov1.281111113V. Sydorenko3.506790LAug 17 · 15:05O. Korobov1.33111411952V. Chumak3.251312511113LAug 17 · 13:05O. Korobov1.5011412952M. Skliar2.507111011113LAug 10 · 19:25A. Lifanov2.00711117133O. Korobov1.73115611112
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