TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12445144
Played Aug 17Finished
Oleksii Korobov
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11131412115911511
Valentyn Chumak
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:37 and never touched — 81.9% is still 81.9%
Graded at full timeOleksii Korobov to win
81.9%
81.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksii Korobov above · Valentyn Chumak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 102 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Oleksii Korobov at 81.9%
102 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Korobov 7–2 Valentyn Chumak Valentyn Chumak has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:37What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Korobov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Korobov
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobov 1524 vs Chumak 1445
Korobov
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobov 60% vs Chumak 80%
Chumak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobov 70% vs Chumak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobov -2 · Chumak +4
Chumak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Korobov) · live re-read · sealed at 82% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chumak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobov 1.33 / Chumak 3.25
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Korobov)+6.0pp
Setka Cup · #12445144
Korobov1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 51 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 36 of 47
Chumak3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 63 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKorobov7wins
AwayChumak2wins
3 of 9 to a deciderKorobov leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorobov100%5 of 5
AwayChumak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobov5Chumak4n = 9Korobov took 5 of 9
S2Korobov7Chumak2n = 9Korobov took 7 of 9
S3Korobov8Chumak1n = 9Korobov took 8 of 9
S4Korobov2Chumak3n = 5Chumak took 3 of 5
S5Korobov2Chumak1n = 3Korobov took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKorobovChumakK − CBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match39.933.0+6.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobovChumakBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 128 vs 258 / 52260.2%49.4%77 / 128 vs 258 / 522Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorobovKorobov 1.33/Chumak 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.9%
Korobov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chumak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 17 · 15:05O. Korobov—111411952V. Chumak—1312511113
WAug 10 · 15:55O. Korobov—11119113V. Chumak—861121
WAug 3 · 18:35O. Korobov—591213113V. Chumak—1111101182
WJul 27 · 17:55O. Korobov—811117113V. Chumak—11461192
LJun 18 · 12:35O. Korobov—881181V. Chumak—11115113
WJun 10 · 17:35O. Korobov—1111113V. Chumak—9460
WApr 14 · 13:35O. Korobov—1111113V. Chumak—5980
WApr 7 · 17:05O. Korobov—1111123V. Chumak—73100
WMar 31 · 17:35O. Korobov—1112113V. Chumak—81090
O. Korobov10
WAug 24 · 18:35O. Korobov1.7351411113V. Sharpai2.001112861WAug 24 · 17:05O. Korobov1.3611911113V. Chumak3.00411951WAug 24 · 15:35O. Korobov1.441111123V. Hainiuk2.6382100WAug 24 · 14:05O. Korobov1.441611711123R. Serhyenko2.63189119102LAug 24 · 12:35O. Korobov1.53681151V. Kaganovych2.3811117113WAug 17 · 18:35V. Kaganovych2.1061070O. Korobov1.671112113WAug 17 · 17:35O. Korobov1.571213113V. Hainiuk2.25101180WAug 17 · 16:35O. Korobov1.281111113V. Sydorenko3.506790LAug 17 · 13:05O. Korobov1.5011412952M. Skliar2.507111011113LAug 10 · 19:25A. Lifanov2.00711117133O. Korobov1.73115611112
V. Chumak10
WSep 3 · 19:05V. Chumak1.50121111113I. Elfemov2.501013371WSep 3 · 17:05A. Azarov2.7510111171V. Chumak1.4012913113LSep 3 · 16:05V. Chumak2.00811641D. Boltenkov1.7311911113WSep 3 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.201213671V. Chumak1.61101511113WSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 2 · 19:55V. Chumak1.8051111652D. Boltenkov1.91116711113WSep 2 · 17:55R. Serhyenko2.101013471V. Chumak1.67121111113WSep 2 · 16:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Azarov2.009290WSep 2 · 15:55Y. Bielokon2.10119371V. Chumak1.6761111113LAug 24 · 17:05O. Korobov1.3611911113V. Chumak3.00411951
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