TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12444900
Played Aug 17Finished
Oleksii Korobov
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117119––––
Vitalii Sydorenko
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:14 and never touched — 88.9% is still 88.9%
Graded at full timeOleksii Korobov to win
88.9%
88.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Korobov above · Vitalii Sydorenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Oleksii Korobov at 88.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Korobov 14–4 Vitalii Sydorenko Vitalii Sydorenko has won 4 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:14What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Korobov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-4 in 18
Korobov
Correct
gap of 10 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobov 1553 vs Sydorenko 1299
Korobov
Correct
both rated, 254 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobov 40% vs Sydorenko 20%
Korobov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobov 60% vs Sydorenko 20%
Korobov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobov -3 · Sydorenko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Korobov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Korobov form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobov 1.28 / Sydorenko 3.50
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Korobov)+15.8pp
Setka Cup · #12444900
Korobov1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 51 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 36 of 47
Sydorenko3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 77 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back22% 28 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKorobov8wins
AwaySydorenko2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKorobov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorobov87.5%7 of 8
AwaySydorenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobov8Sydorenko2n = 10Korobov took 8 of 10
S2Korobov9Sydorenko1n = 10Korobov took 9 of 10
S3Korobov5Sydorenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Korobov4Sydorenko3n = 7Korobov took 4 of 7
S5Korobov2Sydorenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKorobovSydorenkoK − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.933.1+6.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobovSydorenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 131 vs 266 / 58961.1%45.2%80 / 131 vs 266 / 589Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorobovKorobov 1.28/Sydorenko 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.9%
Korobov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Korobov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 3 · 17:05O. Korobov—11116113V. Sydorenko—481191
WJul 21 · 17:05O. Korobov—1111153V. Sydorenko—76130
WJul 7 · 17:55O. Korobov—11119113V. Sydorenko—651161
WJul 1 · 12:35O. Korobov—111156113V. Sydorenko—49111152
LJun 24 · 18:35O. Korobov—115101142V. Sydorenko—511129113
WJun 18 · 16:35O. Korobov—1111113V. Sydorenko—3990
WJun 10 · 18:35O. Korobov—1111113V. Sydorenko—9580
WJun 2 · 18:35O. Korobov—111113113V. Sydorenko—531581
WMay 26 · 17:05O. Korobov—611117113V. Sydorenko—11651152
LApr 22 · 19:25O. Korobov—51111742V. Sydorenko—117511113
O. Korobov10
WAug 24 · 18:35O. Korobov1.7351411113V. Sharpai2.001112861WAug 24 · 17:05O. Korobov1.3611911113V. Chumak3.00411951WAug 24 · 15:35O. Korobov1.441111123V. Hainiuk2.6382100WAug 24 · 14:05O. Korobov1.441611711123R. Serhyenko2.63189119102LAug 24 · 12:35O. Korobov1.53681151V. Kaganovych2.3811117113WAug 17 · 18:35V. Kaganovych2.1061070O. Korobov1.671112113WAug 17 · 17:35O. Korobov1.571213113V. Hainiuk2.25101180LAug 17 · 15:05O. Korobov1.33111411952V. Chumak3.251312511113LAug 17 · 13:05O. Korobov1.5011412952M. Skliar2.507111011113LAug 10 · 19:25A. Lifanov2.00711117133O. Korobov1.73115611112
V. Sydorenko10
LSep 3 · 19:35V. Sydorenko2.63713481D. Boltenkov1.44111111113WSep 3 · 17:35Y. Bielokon1.801291191V. Sydorenko1.9114114113WSep 3 · 15:35A. Azarov1.8051211842V. Sydorenko1.911110711113WSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791LSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113LSep 1 · 17:55V. Sydorenko2.63671161A. Lifanov1.4411119113LSep 1 · 16:25V. Sydorenko2.501141381V. Hainiuk1.5041115113WSep 1 · 14:55V. Sydorenko2.631111911123I. Elfemov1.44761113102LSep 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko3.4097130V. Sharpai1.301111153
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