TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089111
Played Sep 7Finished
Oleksii Korobov
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117711811711––
Fedir Chashchin
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksii Korobov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksii Korobov above · Fedir Chashchin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Oleksii Korobov at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Korobov 0–4 Fedir Chashchin Oleksii Korobov has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chashchin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Chashchin
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobov 1595 vs Chashchin 1427
Korobov
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobov 100% vs Chashchin 40%
Korobov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobov 90% vs Chashchin 60%
Korobov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobov +5 · Chashchin +1
Korobov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Korobov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chashchin form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobov 1.83 / Chashchin 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Korobov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13089111
Korobov1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Chashchin1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKorobov0wins
AwayChashchin4wins
2 of 4 to a deciderChashchin leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobov2Chashchin2n = 4split evenly
S2Korobov1Chashchin3n = 4Chashchin took 3 of 4
S3Korobov1Chashchin3n = 4Chashchin took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricKorobovChashchinK − CBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match32.538.2−5.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobovChashchinBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 140 vs 97 / 19062.9%51.1%88 / 140 vs 97 / 190Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KorobovKorobov 1.83/Chashchin 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Korobov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chashchin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 13 · 19:25O. Korobov—11911392F. Chashchin—811411113
LMay 26 · 18:35O. Korobov—71160F. Chashchin—1113113
LFeb 23 · 19:35O. Korobov—11116952F. Chashchin—421111113
LFeb 5 · 20:03O. Korobov—71040F. Chashchin—1112113
O. Korobov10
WSep 7 · 17:05O. Korobov1.33117811133V. Chumak3.25711114112WSep 7 · 15:35O. Korobov1.361111113V. Hainiuk3.007950WSep 7 · 14:05O. Korobov1.7313511113V. Kaganovych2.001111241WSep 7 · 12:35O. Korobov1.5311511113V. Sharpai2.38611661WAug 24 · 18:35O. Korobov1.7351411113V. Sharpai2.001112861WAug 24 · 17:05O. Korobov1.3611911113V. Chumak3.00411951WAug 24 · 15:35O. Korobov1.441111123V. Hainiuk2.6382100WAug 24 · 14:05O. Korobov1.441611711123R. Serhyenko2.63189119102LAug 24 · 12:35O. Korobov1.53681151V. Kaganovych2.3811117113WAug 17 · 18:35V. Kaganovych2.1061070O. Korobov1.671112113
F. Chashchin10
WSep 7 · 17:35F. Chashchin2.10661211113V. Hainiuk1.67111110692LSep 7 · 16:35F. Chashchin2.75115971V. Sharpai1.4031111113WSep 7 · 15:05F. Chashchin1.611111103113V. Chumak2.2085121192LSep 7 · 13:05F. Chashchin2.2571112462V. Kaganovych1.571191011113LAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741WAug 31 · 18:05F. Chashchin1.731111113R. Serhyenko2.006650WAug 31 · 16:05V. Chumak2.251110271F. Chashchin1.5791211113WAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113WAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113LAug 27 · 19:55F. Chashchin1.57941181V. Sydorenko2.2511117113
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