TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131376
Played Sep 15Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119511118117––
Ivan Elfemov
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Ivan Elfemov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 60.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 10–5 Ivan Elfemov Ivan Elfemov has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kaganovych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Kaganovych
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1463 vs Elfemov 1402
Kaganovych
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 60% vs Elfemov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 60% vs Elfemov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych +3 · Elfemov +1
Kaganovych
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Elfemov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.57 / Elfemov 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Kaganovych)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13131376
Kaganovych1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 123 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it83% 86 of 104
Elfemov2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 39 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych6wins
AwayElfemov4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych100%4 of 4
AwayElfemov66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych4Elfemov6n = 10Elfemov took 6 of 10
S2Kaganovych7Elfemov3n = 10Kaganovych took 7 of 10
S3Kaganovych5Elfemov5n = 10split evenly
S4Kaganovych4Elfemov5n = 9Elfemov took 5 of 9
S5Kaganovych3Elfemov1n = 4Kaganovych took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychElfemovK − EBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.740.8+0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychElfemovBasisWin rate · lifetime342 / 550 vs 285 / 47462.2%60.1%342 / 550 vs 285 / 474Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.57/Elfemov 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kaganovych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 13:05V. Kaganovych46711116113I. Elfemov4611871192
LSep 11 · 15:33V. Kaganovych378117111I. Elfemov4111611133
LSep 8 · 14:05V. Kaganovych30611851I. Elfemov4111811113
WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kaganovych361211133I. Elfemov29108110
WAug 25 · 13:05V. Kaganovych47511911113I. Elfemov3811611642
WAug 18 · 13:05V. Kaganovych4512811143I. Elfemov4210119121
LAug 11 · 14:05V. Kaganovych37981191I. Elfemov3611113113
WJul 28 · 14:55V. Kaganovych511110711123I. Elfemov47512119102
WJul 15 · 17:05V. Kaganovych45121111113I. Elfemov371081361
LJul 13 · 19:55V. Kaganovych4381311562I. Elfemov511111711113
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 15 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.61911711113A. Lifanov2.2011911942WSep 14 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.501071261V. Kaganovych1.50121110113WSep 14 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.367111011113V. Sydorenko3.0011712372LSep 14 · 16:05V. Sharpai2.001112113V. Kaganovych1.7371060LSep 14 · 14:05O. Korobov1.611111123V. Kaganovych2.2069100WSep 14 · 13:05I. Elfemov2.2511871192V. Kaganovych1.57711116113LSep 11 · 19:35V. Kaganovych1.4013138101V. Sydorenko2.75151111123WSep 11 · 17:35Y. Bielokon3.409260V. Kaganovych1.301111113LSep 11 · 15:33I. Elfemov2.5011611133V. Kaganovych1.508117111WSep 11 · 14:35V. Kaganovych1.331111113A. Azarov3.252370
I. Elfemov10
WSep 15 · 13:05F. Chashchin1.6110760I. Elfemov2.201211113LSep 14 · 18:35O. Korobov1.3091114113I. Elfemov3.401131241LSep 14 · 17:35I. Elfemov2.00611791V. Hainiuk1.7311711113WSep 14 · 16:35I. Elfemov1.5011511113V. Sydorenko2.50711691WSep 14 · 15:05I. Elfemov2.106111013113V. Sharpai1.67119121192LSep 14 · 13:05I. Elfemov2.2511871192V. Kaganovych1.57711116113LSep 11 · 18:35I. Elfemov1.409111161Y. Bielokon2.7511135113WSep 11 · 17:06I. Elfemov1.4481612113R. Serhyenko2.6311141091WSep 11 · 15:33I. Elfemov2.5011611133V. Kaganovych1.508117111WSep 10 · 19:25I. Elfemov2.50613611113V. Sharpai1.50111111892
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