TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131360
Played Sep 15Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911119711119114
Andrii Lifanov
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:53 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Andrii Lifanov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 93 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 55.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 23–15 Andrii Lifanov Andrii Lifanov has won 15 of their 38 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:53What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kaganovych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-15 in 38
Kaganovych
Correct
gap of 8 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1451 vs Lifanov 1471
Lifanov
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 60% vs Lifanov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 60% vs Lifanov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych +2 · Lifanov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lifanov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.61 / Lifanov 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kaganovych)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13131360
Kaganovych1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 123 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it83% 86 of 104
Lifanov2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 18 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back30% 9 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych7wins
AwayLifanov3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych60%3 of 5
AwayLifanov20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych5Lifanov5n = 10split evenly
S2Kaganovych5Lifanov5n = 10split evenly
S3Kaganovych6Lifanov4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S4Kaganovych7Lifanov2n = 9Kaganovych took 7 of 9
S5Kaganovych3Lifanov2n = 5Kaganovych took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychLifanovK − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.537.7+4.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychLifanovBasisWin rate · lifetime341 / 549 vs 209 / 37462.1%55.9%341 / 549 vs 209 / 374Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.61/Lifanov 2.20
Hit
What we said
55.7%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kaganovych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych4411813123A. Lifanov4081111101
LAug 25 · 18:35V. Kaganovych46115811112A. Lifanov52811119133
WAug 10 · 16:25V. Kaganovych43101111113A. Lifanov21122251
WAug 3 · 18:05V. Kaganovych341112113A. Lifanov2481060
LJul 31 · 19:55V. Kaganovych3811271172A. Lifanov44511116113
LJul 27 · 13:55V. Kaganovych35981171A. Lifanov4011117113
WJul 22 · 14:55V. Kaganovych451011211113A. Lifanov4212211892
WJul 14 · 19:25V. Kaganovych48691111113A. Lifanov3711115642
WJul 10 · 20:25V. Kaganovych50811119113A. Lifanov4611891172
WJul 6 · 12:35V. Kaganovych4211119113A. Lifanov31781151
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 15 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.5711511113I. Elfemov2.25911871WSep 14 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.501071261V. Kaganovych1.50121110113WSep 14 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.367111011113V. Sydorenko3.0011712372LSep 14 · 16:05V. Sharpai2.001112113V. Kaganovych1.7371060LSep 14 · 14:05O. Korobov1.611111123V. Kaganovych2.2069100WSep 14 · 13:05I. Elfemov2.2511871192V. Kaganovych1.57711116113LSep 11 · 19:35V. Kaganovych1.4013138101V. Sydorenko2.75151111123WSep 11 · 17:35Y. Bielokon3.409260V. Kaganovych1.301111113LSep 11 · 15:33I. Elfemov2.5011611133V. Kaganovych1.508117111WSep 11 · 14:35V. Kaganovych1.331111113A. Azarov3.252370
A. Lifanov10
LSep 15 · 14:35V. Hainiuk3.001111133A. Lifanov1.3649110LSep 10 · 19:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Lifanov2.005840WSep 10 · 18:55A. Azarov3.255590A. Lifanov1.331111113WSep 10 · 17:25V. Sharpai1.6761111382A. Lifanov2.10119811113WSep 10 · 15:25D. Boltenkov2.1012119252A. Lifanov1.671071111113LSep 10 · 13:25I. Elfemov2.63111149113A. Lifanov1.4446111122LSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113WSep 1 · 17:55V. Sydorenko2.63671161A. Lifanov1.4411119113WSep 1 · 16:55A. Lifanov1.401111410133I. Elfemov2.75871112112LSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101
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