TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13125033
Played Sep 14Finished
Matyas Navedla
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12101315511811––
Tomas Dousek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:09 and never touched — 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 85 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 64.3%
85 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 6–15 Tomas Dousek Matyas Navedla has won 6 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dousek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-15 in 21
Dousek
Correct
gap of 9 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1761 vs Dousek 1903
Dousek
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 20% vs Dousek 60%
Dousek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 30% vs Dousek 80%
Dousek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla +1 · Dousek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Dousek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Navedla form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.25 / Dousek 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Dousek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13125033
Navedla2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 136 of 316
Down 0–1, comes back24% 38 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 73
Dousek1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 104 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it91% 49 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it75% 82 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla4wins
AwayDousek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDousek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla75%3 of 4
AwayDousek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla4Dousek6n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S2Navedla8Dousek2n = 10Navedla took 8 of 10
S3Navedla6Dousek4n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S4Navedla2Dousek5n = 7Dousek took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaDousekN − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.735.5+0.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 769 vs 245 / 46147.6%53.2%366 / 769 vs 245 / 461Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekNavedla 2.25/Dousek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 13:30M. Navedla4071111113T. Dousek29116841
WSep 7 · 11:30M. Navedla341111123T. Dousek2798100
LAug 26 · 12:30M. Navedla33811591T. Dousek3611311113
LAug 24 · 09:28M. Navedla4111119372T. Dousek49971111113
LAug 24 · 07:30M. Navedla3872111172T. Dousek44111147113
LAug 14 · 13:06M. Navedla351041291T. Dousek44121110113
WAug 14 · 11:00M. Navedla331111113T. Dousek237790
WJul 3 · 13:30M. Navedla331111113T. Dousek199640
LJul 3 · 11:30M. Navedla341011761T. Dousek4212811113
LMay 27 · 17:30M. Navedla367118101T. Dousek4211811123
M. Navedla10
WSep 14 · 19:30L. Prikasky1.91612451M. Navedla1.80111011113LSep 14 · 18:00M. Navedla1.8357111152R. Niezgoda1.83111188113LSep 13 · 17:02M. Navedla1.83741191P. Wawrosz1.8311115113LSep 13 · 16:30M. Navedla2.005117101J. Pilch1.7311811123LSep 13 · 15:00M. Navedla1.83771151R. Revay1.8311116113WSep 13 · 14:00P. Wawrosz1.67111151482M. Navedla2.104131112113LSep 10 · 13:00M. Navedla2.25111514862J. Pilch1.579171211113WSep 10 · 12:00R. Polasek1.61101340M. Navedla2.201215113LSep 10 · 11:00O. Paril1.44811193123M. Navedla2.631141711102LSep 10 · 10:30M. Navedla2.007460J. Pilch1.731111113
T. Dousek10
WSep 14 · 19:00R. Niezgoda1.80581161T. Dousek1.9111116113LSep 14 · 18:30T. Dousek1.73811111082L. Prikasky2.00113912113WSep 13 · 21:00T. Dousek2.0013611113D. Opanasiuk1.731111751LSep 13 · 20:30J. Dzida1.401111123T. Dousek2.7558100WSep 13 · 19:30T. Dousek2.00111179113D. Opanasiuk1.7386111162WSep 13 · 18:30M. Biolek1.5011911952T. Dousek2.50711811113WSep 10 · 17:30T. Dousek1.851114113M. Cabis1.8581270WSep 10 · 16:30T. Dousek1.83711911113R. Polasek1.8311411642WSep 10 · 15:00T. Dousek1.835121112143M. Cabis1.831110614122WSep 10 · 14:00M. Biolek1.50691361T. Dousek2.50111111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Navedla
Nothing scheduled
T. Dousek
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