TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120710
Played Sep 13Finished
Matyas Navedla
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111187111012––
Jakub Pilch
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Pilch to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Jakub Pilch below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Pilch at 54.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 18–29 Jakub Pilch Matyas Navedla has won 18 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:59What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pilch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-29 in 47
Pilch
Correct
gap of 11 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1759 vs Pilch 1804
Pilch
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 40% vs Pilch 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 50% vs Pilch 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla -1 · Pilch +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pilch)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pilch form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.00 / Pilch 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pilch)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120710
Navedla2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 135 of 314
Down 0–1, comes back24% 37 of 155
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 73
Pilch1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 51 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it71% 35 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla3wins
AwayPilch7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPilch leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla50%2 of 4
AwayPilch83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla4Pilch6n = 10Pilch took 6 of 10
S2Navedla6Pilch4n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S3Navedla4Pilch6n = 10Pilch took 6 of 10
S4Navedla4Pilch3n = 7Navedla took 4 of 7
S5Navedla1Pilch5n = 6Pilch took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaPilchN − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.742.7−3.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaPilchBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 765 vs 224 / 44247.7%50.7%365 / 765 vs 224 / 442Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PilchNavedla 2.00/Pilch 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pilch · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 13:00M. Navedla54111514862J. Pilch609171211113
LSep 10 · 10:30M. Navedla177460J. Pilch331111113
LSep 10 · 08:30M. Navedla2781090J. Pilch341112113
WSep 8 · 08:58M. Navedla351113113J. Pilch2991190
LSep 8 · 08:30M. Navedla4111511952J. Pilch48811711113
LSep 7 · 12:30M. Navedla44611512102J. Pilch501161110123
WJul 15 · 17:13M. Navedla5613111011113J. Pilch4615712662
LJul 15 · 14:30M. Navedla44511111072J. Pilch51119812113
WJul 15 · 11:30M. Navedla3811115113J. Pilch29671151
LJul 14 · 12:00M. Navedla4151151192J. Pilch47117117113
M. Navedla10
LSep 13 · 15:00M. Navedla1.83771151R. Revay1.8311116113WSep 13 · 14:00P. Wawrosz1.67111151482M. Navedla2.104131112113LSep 10 · 13:00M. Navedla2.25111514862J. Pilch1.579171211113WSep 10 · 12:00R. Polasek1.61101340M. Navedla2.201215113LSep 10 · 11:00O. Paril1.44811193123M. Navedla2.631141711102LSep 10 · 10:30M. Navedla2.007460J. Pilch1.731111113WSep 10 · 09:00M. Navedla2.1091111113M. Vavrecka1.67115451LSep 10 · 08:30M. Navedla2.0081090J. Pilch1.731112113WSep 10 · 07:00M. Navedla1.83611128113R. Revay1.83118101182WSep 10 · 06:00M. Vavrecka1.578111131M. Navedla2.2511133113
J. Pilch10
WSep 13 · 15:30J. Pilch1.8310101211113P. Wawrosz1.83121210222LSep 13 · 14:30R. Revay1.441311113J. Pilch2.6311460LSep 12 · 08:59J. Pilch1.80481231P. Wawrosz1.91111110113WSep 12 · 08:00P. Wawrosz1.91911981J. Pilch1.8011811113LSep 12 · 07:00L. Prikasky1.9181112113J. Pilch1.801191061LSep 12 · 06:30J. Pilch1.67116112132L. Velebil2.10711711153WSep 10 · 13:00M. Navedla2.25111514862J. Pilch1.579171211113LSep 10 · 12:30O. Paril1.73111110113J. Pilch2.00251261WSep 10 · 10:30M. Navedla2.007460J. Pilch1.731111113WSep 10 · 08:30M. Navedla2.0081090J. Pilch1.731112113
Upcoming Matches
M. Navedla1 of 3 neutral
J. Pilch
Nothing scheduled
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