TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13113649
Played Sep 12Finished
Jakub Pilch
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1176111172111315
Lukas Velebil
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:32 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeLukas Velebil to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Pilch above · Lukas Velebil below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 94 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Lukas Velebil at 59.3%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Pilch 0–1 Lukas Velebil Jakub Pilch has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:32What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pilch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pilch 1783 vs Velebil 1781
Pilch
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pilch 40% vs Velebil 80%
Velebil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pilch 50% vs Velebil 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pilch +1 · Velebil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pilch) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velebil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPilch 1.67 / Velebil 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Velebil)+1.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13113649
Pilch1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 55 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it71% 36 of 51
Velebil2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 8 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePilch0wins
AwayVelebil1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderVelebil leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPilchVelebilP − VBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match43.051.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPilchVelebilBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 438 vs 51 / 9250.7%55.4%222 / 438 vs 51 / 92Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PilchPilch 1.67/Velebil 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pilch · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Velebil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 12 · 06:30J. Pilch—116112132L. Velebil—711711153
J. Pilch10
LSep 12 · 07:00L. Prikasky1.9181112113J. Pilch1.801191061WSep 10 · 13:00M. Navedla2.25111514862J. Pilch1.579171211113LSep 10 · 12:30O. Paril1.73111110113J. Pilch2.00251261LSep 10 · 11:30J. Pilch2.251151381R. Polasek1.5741115113WSep 10 · 10:30M. Navedla2.007460J. Pilch1.731111113LSep 10 · 09:30J. Pilch2.384860R. Revay1.531111113WSep 10 · 08:30M. Navedla2.0081090J. Pilch1.731112113WSep 10 · 07:30J. Pilch2.001361111113M. Vavrecka1.73111181342LSep 10 · 06:30R. Revay1.501061111113J. Pilch2.5012115942LSep 8 · 08:58J. Pilch1.8091190M. Navedla1.911113113
L. Velebil10
WSep 12 · 07:30L. Velebil2.1011117113P. Wawrosz1.67881141LSep 10 · 17:30L. Velebil1.8071191152D. Tomica1.90119119113WSep 10 · 16:30L. Velebil1.4451111113F. Nadymacek2.63114751WSep 10 · 15:00L. Velebil1.8371112113D. Tomica1.831151071WSep 10 · 14:00M. Grundel1.67119931L. Velebil2.1041111113WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191
Upcoming Matches
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L. Velebil
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