TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114287
Played Sep 12Finished
Lukas Velebil
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118118711114––
Pavel Wawrosz
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Wawrosz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Velebil above · Pavel Wawrosz below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 71 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Pavel Wawrosz at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Velebil 1–2 Pavel Wawrosz Lukas Velebil has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:04What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Wawrosz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velebil 1794 vs Wawrosz 1785
Velebil
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velebil 80% vs Wawrosz 60%
Velebil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velebil 60% vs Wawrosz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Velebil +1 · Wawrosz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Wawrosz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velebil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelebil 2.10 / Wawrosz 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Wawrosz)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13114287
Velebil2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 8 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Wawrosz1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 152 of 295
Up 2–0, closes it88% 57 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it73% 101 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVelebil1wins
AwayWawrosz2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderWawrosz leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velebil1Wawrosz2n = 3Wawrosz took 2 of 3
S2Velebil2Wawrosz1n = 3Velebil took 2 of 3
S3Velebil1Wawrosz2n = 3Wawrosz took 2 of 3
S4Velebil2Wawrosz1n = 3Velebil took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVelebilWawroszV − WBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match40.339.7+0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelebilWawroszBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 93 vs 211 / 41655.9%50.7%52 / 93 vs 211 / 416Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WawroszVelebil 2.10/Wawrosz 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Wawrosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Velebil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 12 · 07:30L. Velebil—11117113P. Wawrosz—881141
LMay 15 · 08:58L. Velebil—7129121P. Wawrosz—111011143
LMay 15 · 08:00L. Velebil—86111152P. Wawrosz—111145113
L. Velebil10
WSep 12 · 06:30J. Pilch1.67116112132L. Velebil2.10711711153LSep 10 · 17:30L. Velebil1.8071191152D. Tomica1.90119119113WSep 10 · 16:30L. Velebil1.4451111113F. Nadymacek2.63114751WSep 10 · 15:00L. Velebil1.8371112113D. Tomica1.831151071WSep 10 · 14:00M. Grundel1.67119931L. Velebil2.1041111113WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191
P. Wawrosz10
LSep 12 · 08:00P. Wawrosz1.91911981J. Pilch1.8011811113LSep 12 · 06:00P. Wawrosz1.809111191L. Prikasky1.9111136113WSep 11 · 13:30O. Paril1.85881151P. Wawrosz1.8511119113WSep 11 · 12:30P. Wawrosz1.8361211113R. Revay1.831110681WSep 11 · 11:00P. Wawrosz2.0011127113R. Polasek1.739101191LSep 11 · 10:00O. Paril1.804101111113P. Wawrosz1.9111128572LSep 8 · 09:29P. Wawrosz1.73711661R. Polasek2.0011411113WSep 8 · 08:00R. Polasek1.8312881192P. Wawrosz1.831011116113WSep 8 · 07:00J. Pilch1.73551171P. Wawrosz2.0011116113WSep 8 · 06:30P. Wawrosz1.53111111113M. Navedla2.38813481
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