TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091844
Played Sep 8Finished
Pavel Wawrosz
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181113114118––
Matyas Navedla
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timePavel Wawrosz to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Wawrosz above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Wawrosz at 61.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Wawrosz 23–13 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 13 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Wawrosz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-13 in 36
Wawrosz
Correct
gap of 10 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wawrosz 1801 vs Navedla 1768
Wawrosz
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wawrosz 40% vs Navedla 80%
Navedla
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wawrosz 40% vs Navedla 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wawrosz +1 · Navedla +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Wawrosz) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Navedla form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWawrosz 1.53 / Navedla 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Wawrosz)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091844
Wawrosz1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite51% won 150 of 292
Up 2–0, closes it88% 57 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it73% 100 of 138
Navedla2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 139 of 326
Down 0–1, comes back25% 41 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWawrosz6wins
AwayNavedla4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWawrosz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWawrosz80%4 of 5
AwayNavedla60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wawrosz5Navedla5n = 10split evenly
S2Wawrosz2Navedla8n = 10Navedla took 8 of 10
S3Wawrosz6Navedla4n = 10Wawrosz took 6 of 10
S4Wawrosz5Navedla3n = 8Wawrosz took 5 of 8
S5Wawrosz3Navedla1n = 4Wawrosz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricWawroszNavedlaW − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.540.2+1.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWawroszNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 407 vs 359 / 75350.9%47.7%207 / 407 vs 359 / 753Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WawroszWawrosz 1.53/Navedla 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Wawrosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wawrosz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 06:30P. Wawrosz—111111113M. Navedla—813481
LSep 7 · 10:30P. Wawrosz—8550M. Navedla—1111113
WSep 5 · 07:00P. Wawrosz—881111113M. Navedla—11117692
WSep 4 · 10:30P. Wawrosz—111164113M. Navedla—97111142
WAug 26 · 17:30P. Wawrosz—881111113M. Navedla—11112392
LAug 26 · 15:30P. Wawrosz—7850M. Navedla—1111113
LAug 24 · 08:30P. Wawrosz—1211111692M. Navedla—147818113
WAug 23 · 16:58P. Wawrosz—111011113M. Navedla—512981
LAug 23 · 15:30P. Wawrosz—1578171M. Navedla—131111193
WAug 12 · 16:59P. Wawrosz—111011113M. Navedla—812781
P. Wawrosz10
WSep 8 · 07:00J. Pilch1.73551171P. Wawrosz2.0011116113WSep 7 · 13:07J. Pilch1.72117271P. Wawrosz2.0041111113LSep 7 · 12:00T. Dousek1.6171111113P. Wawrosz2.20117881LSep 7 · 11:00J. Pilch1.8371113113P. Wawrosz1.831171161LSep 7 · 10:30P. Wawrosz1.738550M. Navedla2.001111113WSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:30M. Vavrecka1.80117761P. Wawrosz1.9191111113LSep 6 · 19:30P. Wawrosz1.8021250R. Polasek1.911114113WSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 09:30M. Vavrecka1.781612113P. Wawrosz1.93141050
M. Navedla10
LSep 8 · 07:30M. Navedla2.20101161162R. Polasek1.61126119113WSep 7 · 13:30M. Navedla2.1071111113T. Dousek1.67116841LSep 7 · 12:30J. Pilch1.731161110123M. Navedla2.00611512102WSep 7 · 11:30M. Navedla2.501111123T. Dousek1.5098100WSep 7 · 10:30P. Wawrosz1.738550M. Navedla2.001111113WSep 5 · 09:00M. Navedla1.8311813113L. Prikasky1.836111171LSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142LSep 5 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.73881111113M. Navedla2.0011117692WSep 5 · 06:30M. Navedla1.911111118113L. Prikasky1.8091351192LSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151
Upcoming Matches
P. Wawrosz
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M. Navedla
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