TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087566
Played Sep 7Finished
Matyas Navedla
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191181210––––
Tomas Dousek
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:20 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 61 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 66.9%
61 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 4–14 Tomas Dousek Matyas Navedla has won 4 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:20What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-14 in 18
Dousek
Wrong
gap of 10 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1753 vs Dousek 1828
Dousek
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 60% vs Dousek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 30% vs Dousek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla +2 · Dousek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Dousek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Navedla form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.50 / Dousek 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Dousek)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087566
Navedla2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 139 of 326
Down 0–1, comes back25% 42 of 166
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 78
Dousek1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it75% 90 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla3wins
AwayDousek7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDousek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla50%2 of 4
AwayDousek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla4Dousek6n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S2Navedla8Dousek2n = 10Navedla took 8 of 10
S3Navedla5Dousek5n = 10split evenly
S4Navedla2Dousek6n = 8Dousek took 6 of 8
S5Navedla0Dousek3n = 3Dousek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaDousekN − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.739.6−1.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 748 vs 235 / 44447.7%52.9%357 / 748 vs 235 / 444Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekNavedla 2.50/Dousek 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Navedla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 09:28M. Navedla—11119372T. Dousek—971111113
LAug 24 · 07:30M. Navedla—72111172T. Dousek—111147113
LAug 14 · 13:06M. Navedla—1041291T. Dousek—121110113
WAug 14 · 11:00M. Navedla—1111113T. Dousek—7790
WJul 3 · 13:30M. Navedla—1111113T. Dousek—9640
LJul 3 · 11:30M. Navedla—1011761T. Dousek—12811113
LMay 27 · 17:30M. Navedla—7118101T. Dousek—11811123
LMay 27 · 14:00M. Navedla—11117882T. Dousek—971111113
LMay 3 · 12:59M. Navedla—71113101T. Dousek—11915123
WMay 3 · 12:00M. Navedla—71112113T. Dousek—1171091
M. Navedla10
LSep 7 · 12:30J. Pilch1.731161110123M. Navedla2.00611512102WSep 7 · 10:30P. Wawrosz1.738550M. Navedla2.001111113WSep 5 · 09:00M. Navedla1.8311813113L. Prikasky1.836111171LSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142LSep 5 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.73881111113M. Navedla2.0011117692WSep 5 · 06:30M. Navedla1.911111118113L. Prikasky1.8091351192LSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120LSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:30M. Navedla1.73116124112L. Prikasky2.001111011133
T. Dousek10
WSep 7 · 12:00T. Dousek1.6171111113P. Wawrosz2.20117881WSep 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.611111113J. Pilch2.209980LSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113LSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 16:58T. Dousek1.7361181182T. Zika2.00117117113LSep 5 · 16:00T. Dousek2.5011911842M. Biolek1.50711811113WSep 5 · 15:30T. Zika2.101112111182T. Dousek1.67814913113LSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123
Upcoming Matches
M. Navedla
T. Dousek
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