TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071484
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Skotnica
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161171412––––
Matyas Navedla
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:48 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Skotnica to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Skotnica above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 61 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Martin Skotnica at 54.9%
61 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skotnica 10–7 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Skotnica
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Skotnica
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotnica 1877 vs Navedla 1695
Skotnica
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotnica 100% vs Navedla 0%
Skotnica
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotnica 90% vs Navedla 20%
Skotnica
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotnica +5 · Navedla -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Skotnica) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Navedla form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotnica 1.67 / Navedla 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Skotnica)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071484
Skotnica1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 43 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it70% 33 of 47
Navedla2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 140 of 324
Down 0–1, comes back26% 42 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotnica6wins
AwayNavedla4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSkotnica leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotnica66.7%4 of 6
AwayNavedla50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotnica6Navedla4n = 10Skotnica took 6 of 10
S2Skotnica6Navedla4n = 10Skotnica took 6 of 10
S3Skotnica4Navedla6n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S4Skotnica6Navedla4n = 10Skotnica took 6 of 10
S5Skotnica3Navedla3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicaNavedlaS − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.444.0+1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicaNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 217 vs 356 / 74555.3%47.8%120 / 217 vs 356 / 745Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicaSkotnica 1.67/Navedla 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Skotnica · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skotnica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 8 · 15:00M. Skotnica—121111113M. Navedla—148791
LJun 24 · 16:00M. Skotnica—11981192M. Navedla—611118113
WJun 17 · 17:30M. Skotnica—1311410113M. Navedla—119111262
WJun 17 · 14:00M. Skotnica—911411123M. Navedla—119115102
WMay 7 · 16:58M. Skotnica—1411109153M. Navedla—1231211132
LMay 7 · 16:30M. Skotnica—771141M. Navedla—11117113
LApr 15 · 16:00M. Skotnica—119101392M. Navedla—4111211113
LMar 20 · 13:59M. Skotnica—71114482M. Navedla—1171211113
WMar 20 · 13:30M. Skotnica—111011123M. Navedla—8125101
WFeb 11 · 15:30M. Skotnica—11115103M. Navedla—881161
M. Skotnica10
LSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113WSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191WSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113WSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862WAug 13 · 17:30M. Skotnica1.631111113M. Grundel2.059790LAug 13 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.83511114102D. Tomica1.83117911123WAug 13 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.00711871M. Skotnica1.7311411113
M. Navedla10
WSep 5 · 09:00M. Navedla1.8311813113L. Prikasky1.836111171LSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142LSep 5 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.73881111113M. Navedla2.0011117692WSep 5 · 06:30M. Navedla1.911111118113L. Prikasky1.8091351192LSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:30M. Navedla1.73116124112L. Prikasky2.001111011133LSep 4 · 13:00L. Prikasky2.109111110113M. Navedla1.6711751252LSep 4 · 12:00R. Revay1.9181111133M. Navedla1.801186111LSep 4 · 11:00L. Prikasky2.25511117113M. Navedla1.5711761162
Upcoming Matches
M. Skotnica
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M. Navedla
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