TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071531
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Skotnica
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116113811211114
Daniel Tomica
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Skotnica to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Skotnica above · Daniel Tomica below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 78 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Martin Skotnica at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skotnica 6–8 Daniel Tomica Martin Skotnica has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:48What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tomica
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Tomica
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotnica 1860 vs Tomica 1713
Skotnica
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotnica 100% vs Tomica 60%
Skotnica
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotnica 80% vs Tomica 50%
Skotnica
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotnica +5 · Tomica +2
Skotnica
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skotnica)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotnica form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotnica 1.83 / Tomica 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skotnica)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071531
Skotnica1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Tomica1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotnica5wins
AwayTomica5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotnica80%4 of 5
AwayTomica80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotnica5Tomica5n = 10split evenly
S2Skotnica7Tomica3n = 10Skotnica took 7 of 10
S3Skotnica6Tomica4n = 10Skotnica took 6 of 10
S4Skotnica3Tomica5n = 8Tomica took 5 of 8
S5Skotnica3Tomica4n = 7Tomica took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicaTomicaS − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.841.1+1.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicaTomicaBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 215 vs 86 / 18054.9%47.8%118 / 215 vs 86 / 180Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicaSkotnica 1.83/Tomica 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skotnica · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skotnica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 16:00M. Skotnica—511114102D. Tomica—117911123
WFeb 26 · 18:01M. Skotnica—411811113D. Tomica—11411592
WFeb 26 · 15:00M. Skotnica—1311113D. Tomica—11720
LFeb 24 · 17:00M. Skotnica—11641162D. Tomica—811113113
LFeb 19 · 18:30M. Skotnica—811119102D. Tomica—116811123
WFeb 19 · 15:00M. Skotnica—1111810113D. Tomica—58111252
LJan 8 · 16:00M. Skotnica—8911101D. Tomica—11118123
LDec 18 · 18:30M. Skotnica—66111172D. Tomica—111175113
WDec 18 · 16:00M. Skotnica—1211123D. Tomica—107100
WDec 10 · 18:30M. Skotnica—111788113D. Tomica—815111192
M. Skotnica10
LSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.671111143M. Navedla2.1067120WSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113WSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191WSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113WSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862WAug 13 · 17:30M. Skotnica1.631111113M. Grundel2.059790LAug 13 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.83511114102D. Tomica1.83117911123WAug 13 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.00711871M. Skotnica1.7311411113
D. Tomica10
WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841WAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113WAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931LAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113LAug 27 · 14:00L. Prikasky1.4491111113D. Tomica2.63118821WAug 22 · 12:58D. Tomica1.8319117113M. Vavrecka1.831751191WAug 22 · 12:00D. Tomica2.2011811173M. Vavrecka1.613119151WAug 13 · 16:00M. Skotnica1.83511114102D. Tomica1.83117911123
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