TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13018141
Played Aug 27Finished
Libor Prikasky
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911118118112––
Daniel Tomica
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeLibor Prikasky to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLibor Prikasky above · Daniel Tomica below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 71 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Libor Prikasky at 58.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Libor Prikasky 3–1 Daniel Tomica Daniel Tomica has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:39What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Prikasky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Prikasky
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prikasky 1814 vs Tomica 1714
Prikasky
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prikasky 40% vs Tomica 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prikasky 40% vs Tomica 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Prikasky -2 · Tomica +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Prikasky) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Prikasky form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrikasky 1.44 / Tomica 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Prikasky)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13018141
Prikasky1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 87 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it84% 63 of 75
Tomica2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 24 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back20% 6 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePrikasky3wins
AwayTomica1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderPrikasky leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrikasky75%3 of 4
AwayTomican = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prikasky4Tomica0n = 4Prikasky took 4 of 4
S2Prikasky2Tomica2n = 4split evenly
S3Prikasky3Tomica1n = 4Prikasky took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPrikaskyTomicaP − TBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match36.030.5+5.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrikaskyTomicaBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 429 vs 84 / 17656.2%47.7%241 / 429 vs 84 / 176Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PrikaskyPrikasky 1.44/Tomica 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Prikasky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Prikasky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 13 · 16:58L. Prikasky—1111113D. Tomica—7770
WAug 13 · 14:30L. Prikasky—1110116113D. Tomica—81251122
WJun 7 · 15:30L. Prikasky—1111113D. Tomica—5880
LMay 24 · 12:30L. Prikasky—115941D. Tomica—91111113
L. Prikasky10
LSep 5 · 09:00M. Navedla1.8311813113L. Prikasky1.836111171WSep 5 · 08:30P. Wawrosz1.73771161L. Prikasky2.0011115113LSep 5 · 07:30L. Prikasky1.8391180M. Vavrecka1.831113113LSep 5 · 06:30M. Navedla1.911111118113L. Prikasky1.8091351192WSep 4 · 17:31M. Skotnica1.67912118102L. Prikasky2.101110711123WSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113LSep 4 · 15:30L. Prikasky2.1041030M. Skotnica1.671112113WSep 4 · 14:30M. Navedla1.73116124112L. Prikasky2.001111011133WSep 4 · 13:00L. Prikasky2.109111110113M. Navedla1.6711751252LSep 4 · 12:30L. Prikasky2.00771271P. Wawrosz1.73111110113
D. Tomica10
WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113WAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931LAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113WAug 22 · 12:58D. Tomica1.8319117113M. Vavrecka1.831751191WAug 22 · 12:00D. Tomica2.2011811173M. Vavrecka1.613119151LAug 22 · 11:30O. Paril1.571111113D. Tomica2.258490
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